While some of the risks that prompted our cautious stance in early February have been partially mitigated, most remain—with the ongoing trade war still the most pertinent. Therefore, we believe it remains prudent to exercise patience. That said, improving liquidity conditions, favorable seasonality, and the possibility of a budget-neutral BTC acquisition strategy offer reasons for optimism. Regardless of the direction, depressed implied volatility (BVIV < 50) suggests that a significant move may be imminent.

A Quick Rehash

We won't belabor the point about why we've had a more defensive view on the crypto market. Below are the key reasons underpinning our risk-averse stance since early February

Trade War – After tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China were announced, it became clear the administration was serious about realigning global trade and willing to endure short-term pain to achieve it. The market's reaction also revealed that tariffs weren't as fully priced in as many had expected. While the long-term implications of balanced trade could ultimately be bullish for BTC, the path there is likely to be bumpy, as tariffs raise the risk of stagflationary pressures—an environment crypto typically dislikes. Lack of a...