No Shortage of Uncertainty

We generally refrain from overly frequent adjustments to our allocation strategy. However, recent developments have shifted the immediate-term risk/reward balance for our Core Strategy, necessitating a relatively more cautious approach. Based on our analysis below, we also have a good idea for when the market will find a more stable footing.

The DXY has rallied significantly, and the long end of the yield curve has experienced a persistent steepening amidst rising inflation expectations and consistent supply of coupon issuance from the treasury. This past weekend was particularly detrimental to the crypto market, influenced by a confluence of factors:

• Geopolitical tensions
• Tax-related selling and reduced fiscal flows (with tax payments to the treasury exceeding disbursements into the private sector)
• A persistent rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield, driven by strong growth figures (e.g., retail sales exceeding consensus) and inflation expectations

This combination has resulted in a significant drawdown, certainly reminiscent of mid-cycle drawdowns in previous bull markets, yet notable in its magnitude, with many longer-tail assets erasing a month or two of gains within days.