RESEND: Bitcoin ETF Equilibrium Price Dynamics: ETF likely to drive significant rise in daily demand
BY POPULAR DEMAND, WE ARE RE-SENDING THIS BITCOIN PRICE IMPACT OF SPOT ETF REPORT FROM July 24, 2023
The Bitcoin spot ETF was finally approved. And we are seeing the surge in price of Bitcoin because of attractive supply and demand dynamics.
- We received multiple requests to resend this report from July 24, 2023 which looked at supply and demand dynamics if a spot ETF was approved.
- In short, we believe a spot ETF would create a sizable surge in demand relative to supply (block rewards to miners) and the resulting clearing price for $BTC could eventually reach at least $140,000.
To view the original report and deck on Bitcoin ETF equilibrium price dynamics from 7/24/2023, please click here.
Below is the executive summary of the July 24th report:
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin ETF could finally get approved. Sean Farrell sees the “Blackrock effect” making this far more likely today.
- Bitcoin ETF likely one of the largest ever launches. Precious metals ETF > $225 billion. Grayscale, largest asset manager of crypto has $18 billion of Bitcoin AUM.
Reports you may have missed
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...