Crypto is Dead, Long Live Crypto

Annual Outlook Recap

Yesterday, we held our annual outlook call, in which we discussed the carnage of 2022 and reasons to be optimistic about 2023. Below are some highlights, but we invite you to review the entire deck and watch the webinar.

Bottom is In for the Majors

We think that the majors have seen their absolute cyclical lows. This rationale is supported by (1) the nature, magnitude, and duration of the drawdown since late 2021, (2) volatility having churned in recent months (crypto often bottoms on boring), and (3) on-chain price discovery that has transpired for bitcoin around the $16.5k level.

Further, from a fundamental perspective, bitcoin is currently trading at a historically low MVRV multiple.  As a reminder, Market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) measures the profitability of coins presently held across the entire network. Naturally, the higher this metric rises, the “frothier” the market price for Bitcoin, and the more potential selling pressure there will be from holders. Current MVRV levels align with historical cycle lows and impressive forward returns.

Key Themes and Bullish Catalysts

Halvening Narrative to Pick Up Steam in 2H