Wen Bottom?
FOMC Recap
This week, investors were provided with one of the bigger “head-fakes” in recent history. The May FOMC meeting took place on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which Jerome Powell announced a 50-bps rate increase to the target Fed Funds rate and plans to commence with the balance sheet runoff less than a month from today. While these measures were largely priced in, his statements did take the risk of a 75-bps rate hike at the next meeting off the table. As a result, equities, and other risk assets, including crypto, pumped into the market close on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the bounce was short-lived, as the Dow went on to have its worst day since 2020 on Thursday. Consequently, most risk assets plummeted, including bitcoin, which sank over 8% intraday.
Source: TradingView (As of 6pm 5/5/22).
The weekly charts across all crypto sectors are red, with the more speculative areas bleeding more than currencies and smart contract platforms. We have noted over the past several weeks that we think the near term will continue to be tough sledding for names farther out on the risk curve.
Interesting to note – currencies performed worse than smart contract platforms and centralized exchange tokens. Upon reviewing liquidations data, the underperformance of currenc...Reports you may have missed
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...