Welcome to “Uptober”
Key Takeaways
- A FUD-free week combined with shifting regulatory sentiment catalyzes a 33% weekly increase for $BTC and a 28% increase for $ETH. Bitcoin’s market cap returns to $1 trillion and trades above the 200-day moving average.
- Data points to a spot-driven market for Bitcoin as just over $100 million in short positions were liquidated on Wednesday’s move and leverage remains relatively subdued despite the bullish price action.
- $BTC transfer volume data demonstrating a higher percentage of transactions above $10 million in aggregate value suggests increased participation from institutional players.
- Bitcoin dominance appears to be gaining steam as the leading cryptoasset diverges from the altcoin market. This potentially indicates the start of wider rotation out of altcoins and into Bitcoin.
- On-chain supply dynamics may finally be bearing fruit as the current illiquid supply levels may have led to outsized impact from today’s spot demand.
- Bottom Line: Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance in the face of a seemingly murky macro landscape is a positive sign for investors. We continue to view the remainder of Q4 as bullish for $BTC and $ETH and will continue to approach any near-term pullbacks as opportunities to add to our positions.
What a difference a week makes
This time la...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY With the looming threat of an escalating trade war and economic data robust enough to discourage a more dovish Fed stance, we believe the upside risk for the DXY and yields has increased in Q1. Moreover, the market remains highly volatile and headline-driven, inhibiting the crypto market from gaining meaningful momentum. While regulatory developments are a key medium- to a long-term tailwind for crypto, it is unlikely that...
Developments since the inauguration confirm that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, a possible TGA spenddown, and favorable seasonality, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat POWELL MAKES SOME EDITS When the FOMC statement was first released on Wednesday, it carried a distinctly hawkish tilt. The language reflected a more optimistic view on employment...
Recent developments since the inauguration suggest that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. We believe there is still significant upside headline risk in the early days of Trump's term. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, as well as substantial inflows into the crypto ecosystem, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat THE LAUNCH OF TRUMP COIN This past weekend will...
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...