Long-term Investors HODL as Potential Catalysts Approach
Key Takeaways
China FUD causes crypto markets to sell-off for the second week in a row. We take a deeper dive to understand the broader implications (or lack thereof) of the most recent regulatory crackdown announced by Beijing.Leverage and funding rates are trending lower, signaling uncertainty among short-term market participants.Despite recent volatility, HODLers continue to accumulate bitcoins, leading to an increasingly illiquid bitcoin supply.The Lightning Network allows Bitcoin to gain adoption as a global currency while saving consumers and merchants billions in annual costs.Seasonal trends are starting to look favorable for investors as October has been an overwhelmingly positive month for Bitcoin.We view the potential approval of a futures-based Bitcoin ETF and increased confidence surrounding a successful transition to ETH 2.0 to be near-term catalysts that clients should have on their radar.Bottom Line: BTC is trading below its 200-day moving average. For those with near-term liquidity needs, it may be suitable to wait until we re-test this level. However, we are steadfast in our view that any near-term selling is an opportunity to buy as we anticipate a risk-on environment through the end of the year to yield a run at all-time highs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum....Reports you may have missed
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...
