Long-term Investors HODL as Potential Catalysts Approach
Key Takeaways
China FUD causes crypto markets to sell-off for the second week in a row. We take a deeper dive to understand the broader implications (or lack thereof) of the most recent regulatory crackdown announced by Beijing.Leverage and funding rates are trending lower, signaling uncertainty among short-term market participants.Despite recent volatility, HODLers continue to accumulate bitcoins, leading to an increasingly illiquid bitcoin supply.The Lightning Network allows Bitcoin to gain adoption as a global currency while saving consumers and merchants billions in annual costs.Seasonal trends are starting to look favorable for investors as October has been an overwhelmingly positive month for Bitcoin.We view the potential approval of a futures-based Bitcoin ETF and increased confidence surrounding a successful transition to ETH 2.0 to be near-term catalysts that clients should have on their radar.Bottom Line: BTC is trading below its 200-day moving average. For those with near-term liquidity needs, it may be suitable to wait until we re-test this level. However, we are steadfast in our view that any near-term selling is an opportunity to buy as we anticipate a risk-on environment through the end of the year to yield a run at all-time highs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum....Reports you may have missed
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
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