Crypto Weekly: 2/24/2021
Market Recap: New ATHs & Continued Volatility
Bitcoin rallied to a high of $58,367 on Sunday before commencing a 23% sell off down to $44,888 yesterday morning and bouncing to its current price of $48,770. In our view, the recent move is nothing more than a nice healthy correction and we think recent events have de-risked the market. We continue to believe the fourth crypto bull market remains intact and our Bitcoin price target remains $100k.
Source: Tradingview
One reason we believe the recent sell off puts the market on sounder footing is the impact it has had on leveraged. We had generally been moving higher for the last month and momentum traders have been riding that wave with margin long positions. The sell-off on Sunday and Monday liquidated $3.6B and $2.3B of long futures positions, respectively. Putting these numbers in perspective, the total Bitcoin futures open interest across all exchanges dropped 16% from $19B to $16B over the last few days according to Skew. We think this offers a nice reset that could set us up for the next moving higher.
Source: ByBit
Looking back to the prior bull market in 2017, we see that the best times to add crypto exposure were following similar sell offs. During the six ~30%+ sell offs we tallied, t...Reports you may have missed
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
