Crypto Weekly (Oct. 23rd, 2019)
Weekly recap...
- Bakkt futures hit ATH, will launch options contracts on 12/9/19
- Is quantum computing a threat to BTC?
- Several hurdles expected to improve by year end; still risk-off for BTC
Center Story
1. Bakkt futures just needed a little time... options launch coming next
Bakkt futures daily trading volume has taken off. Was media too quick to judge? Wouldn't be first time.
Variations of "Bakkt futures volume has been disappointing" have been a common refrain since Bakkt's launch at the end of September. But, contract volume rocketed to 640 contracts (~$5mm) on Wednesday. Sustained volume growth will be a sign that price discovery mechanisms in crypto are improving.
One of the key benefits from Bakkt's contract design outlined by Bakkt's CEO, Kelly Loefller, is that prices do not rely on spot trade data:
It is widely reported that the vast majority of trading volume – greater than 90% – is impacted by manipulation, wash trades and other fraudulent activity. This means that for the first time, a benchmark futures price for bitcoin is being set without referencing the unregulated spot market.
Bakkt announced it will be launching the first regulation options contract for BTC futures on 12/9/19. Contract features below...
Capital efficienc...Reports you may have missed
SOL OUTPERFORMANCE Last week, we highlighted the explosive activity on Solana as DEX volumes surpassed those on Ethereum, leading us to increase SOL's weighting in our Core Strategy. These elevated DEX volumes have persisted through this week, and SOL has dramatically outperformed, breaking out against ETH and gaining ground against BTC—all amid a sharp bond selloff and a rally in the DXY. Source: Artemis Source: TradingView A significant portion of...
SMALL CAP BREAKOUT A POSITIVE INDICATOR FOR BTC It is a common refrain among passive industry observers that BTC is strongly correlated with large-cap tech stocks, leading some to view BTC as a quasi-leveraged version of QQQ. However, we think this perspective is limiting. If you were to rely on QQQ as a barometer for crypto market conditions, you would experience several periods of underperformance over the course of a...
Storm-Driven Claims, Political Shifts, and Seasonality Point to Bullish Crypto Setup for Late October
MARKET INCREASES PROBABILITY OF 'NO LANDING' Over the past week, a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases have significantly impacted market sentiment:ROBUST ISM SERVICES PMI: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.9, significantly above the forecasted 51.7.STRONG NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP): The economy added 254,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000.FOMC MINUTES INDICATE DIVERGENCE: The FOMC minutes revealed non-consensus at the September meeting regarding whether to cut rates by...
CME Basis Suggests We Are Near a Tradable Low, Plus Some Thoughts on Positioning Ahead of the Election
A ROUGH STRETCH AMID RISING UNCERTAINTY SKEWS RISKS TO THE UPSIDE The past five trading days have been challenging for the crypto market, marked by significant uncertainty stemming from various geopolitical and economic events. Among the notable sources of market distress are:GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: Iran’s missile attack on Israel has led to heightened anticipation of an Israeli response, with oil prices spiking to $74.NATURAL DISASTERS: A devastating hurricane in the Southeast...
