Crypto Weekly (Sept. 25th, 2019)
Weekly recap...
- The crypto market crashed and no one really knows why
- BTC SegWit adoption jumped to >50% = network throughput improving
- With BTC below $9.3k support level, the next key support is now $7.5-8k
Center Story
1. The Four Horseman visited crypto
The Four Horseman of a crypto flash crash seen passing through
This was a rough start to the week for crypto brought on by a confluence of "risk off" events, but it's hard to say what exactly sparked the crash.
Though, our Bitcoin Misery Index had been showing an overbought market and furthermore, our own Tom Lee has discussed the need for a a clear macro trend (S&P 500 breakout) before BTC performance improves.
These are at least four factors that we think contributed to the flash crash and destruction of the bull market that started in April (or least added fuel to the selling fire)...
1) The Bakkt launch, though a truly positive fundamental development for the space (first physically settled BTC futures contracts = improved liquidity and access to ), failed to bring a boost to the price that some may had been hoping for. This was an incorrect assumption based on the belief that institutions were simply waiting for a compliant product.
2) BitMEX margi...Reports you may have missed
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Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
