Market Update

August PPI data was released this morning, with both MoM Core and Headline readings coming in slightly above expectations, sparking a rally in rates and gold and likely confirming only 25bps of rate cuts next week. Equities are gaining following the data, with the SPY -2.56%  and QQQ -3.51%  both gaining by more than 0.50%. Crypto is mostly higher, with total crypto market cap gaining 1.13%. BTC -2.74% is trading just above $58k, while ETH -7.16% continues to underperform, showing slight declines and trading in the mid $2,300s. ETHBTC is trading near its early August lows at .04, approaching its lowest level since April 2021. Despite Ethereum’s weakness, PENDLE -7.10% has been one of the top gainers over the past 24 hours, increasing more than 8.5%.

Coinbase Releases Wrapped Bitcoin

Coinbase has launched cbBTC – Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin – an ERC20 token backed 1:1 by Bitcoin and held by Coinbase. Bitcoin is the largest and most widely used digital asset and plays a vital role in onboarding users to the digital asset industry. With that said, a large portion of Bitcoin supply is held passively on the Bitcoin network, not generating any yield or other utility. With cbBTC, users can leverage their Bitcoin holdings across all the defi apps on Ethereum and Base, unlocking an enormous amount of liquidity and increasing utility for Bitcoin holders. cbBTC will be supported on Ethereum and Base, with plans to add additional chains. When users send Bitcoin from Coinbase to a Base or Ethereum address, the BTC will automatically be converted into cbBTC, and when cbBTC is sent to Coinbase addresses, it will automatically be converted to BTC. cbBTC will not have its own order book on Coinbase but will be tradable on decentralized exchanges.

Grayscale XRP Trust

Grayscale has launched its latest crypto investment trust, this time focusing on XRP -5.31% , the native token of the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Grayscale now has 23 crypto investment products, with 19 offering single-asset exposure. XRPL is a distributed peer-to-peer network developed by Ripple to facilitate efficient cross-border payments. XRPL offers cross-border payments that settle in 3-5 seconds and, to date, has facilitated over $50 billion in total transaction volume across 27 million transactions. They have a global FX market coverage of 90% across more than 80 markets. The trust is open to daily subscriptions from individual and institutional accredited investors. XRP -5.31% surged over 8% following the news but has since pared some of its gains, currently trading at $0.55.

Technical Strategy

Following two strong selloffs down to multi-month highs this Summer, the latest milder pullback could be giving some indication that a coming rally could be approaching.   As seen on daily AVAX -9.08% charts below, the trend has been strongly negative in the current downtrend channel from mid-May peaks which has extended lower to intersect two prominent swing highs in the last few months.  However, the pullback to lower lows has had a welcome reprieve as recent selling pressure has successfully held above early August lows.  this could be the start of some base-building as AVAX has managed to advance over the last week and lies just below the key resistance area at $25.60.  Given that cryptocurrencies could be nearing the end of their seasonal weakness into late September, it makes sense to give the area at $25.60 some close scrutiny for evidence of this being exceeded next month.  Such a move should likely move quickly up to 32.50 and likely challenge $40 which approximated the mid-May peaks.  Overall, while recent price action is not a complete “green light” it is somewhat constructive towards thinking a rally should be approaching.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.03T +$4.0B(0.20%) BTC Dominance 56.16 % (-0.23%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$118B (0.00%) In Exchanges +$21B (0.09%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$3.0M (0.01%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate -0.1498(0.0682) Binance -0.3258(-1.2914) Bitfinex +0.7679(0.0901) Bitmex -0.1394(0.6479) ByBit -0.0758(-0.4721) Deribit +0.0353(-0.0463) Huobi -0.5244(-0.5244) Kraken -0.1355(-0.6086) Mean -0.1498(0.0682) OKex -0.3035(-0.2561) Sentiment BMI : 43 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $57,610(-0.60%) Spot Basis $-100(-0.17%) Volume 799,999(48.62%) Open Interest 297,166(-0.20%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 29,162(53.55%) Open Interest 292,579 (1.90%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.9106 (-20.21%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.5054 (2.27%) All metrics as of 2024-09-12 15:10:59 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.14T $57,566 1.46% 36.30% ETH $280B $2,323 -0.16% 2.09% -25.10% SOL $62B $134 1.81% 31.27% -3.69% HNT $1.3B $7.87 -0.28% -79.14% -84.69% DOGE $161,814 $0.0002 -5.65% -99.82% -99.87% All prices as of 2024-09-12 12:03:53 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -33.60% $27 -0.69% 17.98% -13.44% ETHE 0.04% $20 -0.10% 1.91% -25.23% News Quick Bits Bitcoinist Pro-Crypto Lawmakers Probe SEC Chair Gensler Over Alleged Political Bias The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, known for his skeptical stance towards the crypto industry, is under investigation by Republican lawmakers. The investigation, led by Representatives Jim Jordan, Patrick McHenry, and James Comer, centers on allegations of political favoritism in the SEC’s hiring practices. SEC Hiring Scandal In the letter addressed […] The Block Survey conducted by Visa, Brevan Howard and Castle Island Ventures says stablecoins are finding real-world application Stablecoins are not just being used for crypto trading anymore, according to a recent survey of 2,500 people from five emerging markets. The Block Anchorage Digital to provide custody for 21Shares’ spot bitcoin and ether ETFs The crypto bank said it will require issuers and participants to use biometric authentication to engage in crypto ETFs for better security. Dose of DeFI CryptoPotato LEVR Bet Announces Testnet Launch of the First Leveraged Sports Book on Monad [PRESS RELEASE – San Jose, Costa Rica, September 12th, 2024] LEVR Bet is the World’s First Leveraged Sports Book Exchange, Backed by Third Earth Capital, FunFair Ventures, Big Brain Holdings, Varys Capital and Other Major Investors LEVR Bet, the world’s first Decentralized Leveraged Sports Book Exchange, announced the testnet launch of its decentralized platform on […] The Block Coinbase rolls out wrapped bitcoin alternative cbBTC on Ethereum and Base Coinbase launched its own version of wrapped bitcoin on Thursday after teasing the WBTC alternative in August. Regulation CoinJournal eToro to cease crypto trading activity following SEC settlement eToro has agreed to cease most of its crypto trading activities after settling with the SEC. the company will pay a fine of $1.5 million and delist all coins except Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash. eToro will end most of its crypto trading activities following the company’s settlement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. […] The post eToro to cease crypto trading activity following SEC settlement appeared first on CoinJournal. Coin Telegraph Judge says CFTC exceeded its authority halting Kalshi election bets According to Judge Jia Cobb, having Kalshi offer contracts on “whether a chamber of Congress will be controlled by a specific party in a given term” was not unlawful. A federal judge has granted partial summary judgment in Kalshi’s case against the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), paving the way for the prediction market to list bets related to elections.In a Sept. 12 opinion filed in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, Judge Jia Cobb said that the CFTC “exceeded its statutory authority” by issuing an order halting Kalshi’s election markets. The commission argued that gambling on the US political races could disrupt markets and potentially threaten election integrity.“Kalshi’s contracts do not involve unlawful activity or gaming,” said Judge Cobb. “They involve elections, which are neither. Although the Court acknowledges the CFTC’s concern that allowing the public to trade on the outcome of elections threatens the public interest, this Court has no occasion to consider that argument.”Read more Fundraising and M&A The Block DeFi abstraction platform Infinit raises $6 million from investors including Electric Capital, Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Infinit raised $6 million in a funding round involving Electric Capital, Mirana Ventures, Hashed, and Arthur Hayes’ family office, Maelstrom. Investment Products Bitcoinist XRP Price Jumps 8% As Grayscale Introduces First Fund, ETF Speculation Grows The XRP price experienced a notable upswing on Thursday, reaching a three-week high of $0.588, propelled by crypto asset manager Grayscale, as it initiating steps towards the launch of an XRP ETF Potential Path For To ETF Approval In a strategic move announced on Thursday, Grayscale unveiled the United States’ maiden XRP trust, designed as […]