Crypto assets saw a late-day surge yesterday, with BTC reaching a high of almost $63k and ETH eclipsing $2,720. They have since pared some of those gains with Bitcoin trading near $60k and Ethereum holding at $2,600. Bitcoin ETF flows were strong yesterday, totaling $195 million, whereas Ethereum flows were roughly flat, posting $2.9 million in outflows. Equities are gaining today, with the SPY 2.26% and QQQ 3.02% gaining approximately 0.70%. This week was quiet in terms of economic data releases, but all eyes will be on July PPI and CPI reports next week to provide further clarity on the state of the U.S. economy.
Robinhood Q2 Earnings
Retail trading platform Robinhood released Q2 earnings on Wednesday evening, beating top and bottom line estimates. Robinhood reported record revenues of $682 million, up 40% year-over-year. Transaction-based revenues were up 69% YoY to $327 million, which was helped by a 161% increase in crypto trading revenue to $81 million. Crypto revenues were over double that of equities-based revenue, although options were the leading category, totaling $182 million. Crypto notional trading volumes reached $21.5 billion, posting a 137% YoY increase but a 40% drop compared to Q1. After falling to approximately $14 per share on Monday amid mass sell-offs, HOOD 9.34% has rebounded strongly, gaining 29% on the week, helped by their Q2 earnings.
Source: Robinhood
Coinbase Pushes Back Against Banning Prediction Markets
Earlier this week, multiple Democratic senators sent a letter to the CFTC encouraging them to finalize a proposed rule that would ban prediction markets for political events. The rationale being that political bets change the motivations behind votes, causing adverse effects on elections. Coinbase countered with its own letter to the CFTC, iterating its support for the CFTC to uphold the integrity of derivative markets but taking issue with the broad language within the proposal that would result in bans for a large number of prediction contracts without adhering to the CFTC’s historical practice of making determinations on a contract-by-contract basis. The pushback comes as prediction markets have recently grown in popularity as a way to assign probabilities to real-world events – notably election outcomes. Polymarket, a growing decentralized prediction market platform, has seen a steady increase in volume over the past few months, with cumulative volume surpassing $1 billion last month.
Despite today’s minor setback, Bitcoin managed to make good progress in rebounding this week following its success in holding July lows on the recent drawdown from late July. The ability to hold $53,550 followed by a subsequent bounce up above BTC $60k is constructive in the short run. However, the broader pattern from March remains range-bound and requires a rally back over $70k to improve its intermediate-term outlook. Overall, I expect that there could be additional volatility and choppy trading over the next week ahead of a push higher to exceed July highs into September. One should look to buy dips in the low $50’s and sell rallies in the high $60’s until this larger trading range can be resolved.
Daily Important Metrics
Crypto Size
Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing
Market cap 2.10T
+$5.2B(0.25%)
BTC Dominance
56.47 % (0.57%)
Stablecoins
Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal
In Circulation +$115B
(0.34%)
In Exchanges +$20B
(-0.06%)
BTC Metrics
A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage
# BTC Exchanges +$3.0M
(0.01%)
Funding Rates
Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish
Aggregate
+0.1849(-0.3089)
Binance
+0.0300(-0.9667)
Bitfinex
0.0000(-1.6858)
Bitmex
+0.3553(0.0520)
ByBit
-0.0061(-0.5107)
Deribit
-0.1537(-0.0877)
Huobi
+0.6688(0.6688)
Kraken
+0.0846(0.5056)
Mean
+0.1849(-0.3089)
OKex
-0.1292(-0.8763)
Sentiment
BMI : 55 (100.00%)
Futures
A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish
CME Price $60,500(1.06%)
Spot Basis +$576(0.96%)
Volume 1.1M(24.81%)
Open Interest 271,260(-5.19%)
Options all exchanges
Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector
Robinhood recorded a profitable second quarter in 2024, with a 40% increase in revenue year-over-year, totaling $682 million, propelled by a renewed interest in crypto trading. The firm’s crypto transaction-based revenues hit $81 million, accounting for a 161% hike compared…
Bitfarms stock had a strong trading session on Aug. 8 amid lower-than-expected losses in its latest quarterly earnings report. Canadian Bitcoin mining company Bitfarms stock surged nearly 22% following the release of better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.In its Q2 results on Aug. 8, the Bitcoin (BTC) miner reported a 7 cents per share loss, less than the 11 cents per share loss initially forecasted by Zacks Investment Research. In an Aug. 8 post on social media platform X, newly crowned Bitfarms CEO Ben Gagnon said the miner continues to grow and is exploring new opportunities outside of Bitcoin mining. Read more
Thailand has been moving toward a more crypto-friendly stance throughout 2024, approving a Bitcoin ETF, initiating tax breaks for crypto and more. Financial regulators in Thailand are launching a new project to test cryptocurrency service implementations within a dedicated regulatory sandbox.Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced the Digital Asset Regulatory Sandbox on Aug. 9. The sandbox aims to facilitate experiments and the development of new digital asset services.“Interested parties are welcome to participate in the sandbox to test their digital assets-related services, promoting innovative development in the capital market under a framework of flexible regulation,” the SEC’s announcement notes, adding that the sandbox officially launches today.Read more
Russia explores other forms of international trade settlement following US sanctions blocking it from the SWIFT interbank messaging system. Russian President Vladimir Putin approved legislation to reduce its reliance on the United States dollar in international trade.The law will take effect in November 2024 and allow approved mining firms to register through a state database to mine crypto. Small, individual miners can also mine digital currency without officially registering if their energy consumption remains below a certain threshold.Oversight of the newly legalized mining industry will be split between the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance and a select cabinet of ministers within the Russian government, who will establish more precise regulatory requirements over the coming months. The bill also introduced a ban on mass cryptocurrency advertising inside Russia.Read more
