Crypto Market Update

June CPI came in below expectations, with the MoM figure reading -0.1% compared to +0.1% expected, causing a significant drop in rates, with the US10Y dropping to 4.175%. Markets are now pricing an 83% chance of a September rate cut, with higher probabilities for further easing in the subsequent November and December meetings. A large-cap to small-cap rotation appears underway in response to rate expectations, as the IWM is surging while the SPY 0.42%  and QQQ 0.47%  are both negative on the day. ETH 3.77% is outperforming Bitcoin ahead of ETF approval, and a lack of supply overhang plaguing BTC 0.56% . The German Government’s holdings are now below 10,000 BTC (~$570m), although Mt. Gox distributions remain a headwind.

Goldman to Launch Tokenized Funds

Goldman Sachs is extending its push into digital assets with plans to launch three tokenized funds before year-end. Reportedly, two of the funds will target the U.S. “fund complex” and European debt markets, with little details on the third and additional plans to create a tokenized asset marketplace. Goldman has previously worked with European Investment Bank to issue sovereign green bonds for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, but this represents a larger push into the industry. Goldman has witnessed the success of traditional asset managers like Blackrock and Franklin Templeton with their tokenized products. Blackrock’s tokenized treasury fund BUIDL surpassed $500 million in AUM this week. Goldman’s head of digital assets, Matthew McDermott, stated that Goldman’s approach would target institutions instead of individual investors. He also pointed out a nuance compared to competitors in its belief of building on permissioned blockchains versus decentralized ones due to regulatory hurdles.

Microstrategy 10-for-1 Stock Split

Microstrategy (MSTR -4.97% ) has announced a 10-for-1 stock split of the company’s class A and class B common stock to make shares more accessible for investors and employees. The stock split will be completed by means of a stock dividend to holders as of business close on August 1st, 2024. Each MSTR holder will receive 9 additional shares of stock, which will be distributed after the close of trading on August 7th, with split-adjusted trading to begin on the 8th. MSTR shares are responding positively to the split announcement, rising more than 6% in today’s trading. Microstrategy remains the largest corporate bitcoin holder, with 226,331 BTC, worth approximately $13.1 billion at current prices.  

Technical Strategy

Following a steep 40% correction over the last couple of months, Bitcoin Cash has shown a few signs of stabilizing which might lead to an oversold bounce. As shown, prices fell to test the area right near prior peaks from Summer 2023 which intersected near $329.  The decline in BCH 0.92% took the shape of two sharp corrective declines which were nearly equal in price points lost since early April.  Today’s bounce has been helpful in moving back to multi-day highs.  However, at $352, this hits the current downtrend from early June and is not yet strong enough to claim an upside breakout has been achieved.  Moreover, the area at the early May lows at $399 will prove to be the more important area to surpass, and when that happens, then a rally back to near $500 can get underway.  At present, any failure to get above $399 might result in a final pullback under $200 into August.  However, BCH looks interesting as a risk reward given this recent decline but will need to show more strength to be convincing of a larger low in place.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.16T +$18B (0.83%) BTC Dominance 53.58 % (-0.27%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$112B (0.00%) In Exchanges +$20B (-0.06%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$3.0M (0.00%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.7559 (0.0814) Binance +0.7120 (0.1526) Bitfinex +0.2540 (-0.6331) Bitmex +0.7910 (0.1151) ByBit +1.0000 (0.0313) Deribit +0.1553 (-0.7623) Huobi +1.0000 (1.0000) Kraken +0.2694 (-0.3827) Mean +0.7559 (0.0814) OKex +0.3378 (0.3646) Sentiment BMI : 29 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $58,915 (0.19%) Spot Basis +$509 (0.87%) Volume 590,208 (-1.26%) Open Interest 286,562 (0.30%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 16,238 (-5.00%) Open Interest 230,637 (1.59%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.9576 (8.29%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.5059 (-0.62%) All metrics as of 2024-07-11 12:00:25 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.13T $57,445 -0.81% 36.02% ETH $375B $3,117 -0.09% 36.98% 0.71% SOL $64B $139 -1.90% 36.33% 0.23% DOGE $549,057 $0.0005 38.74% -99.38% -99.55% All prices as of 2024-07-11 11:51:29 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -32.38% $35 0.91% 48.33% 9.05% ETHE -0.73% $29 0.62% 50.59% 10.72% News Quick Bits The Block Donald Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville later this month: organizer Other U.S. politicians are also set to speak at Bitcoin 2024, including presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The Block German government continues bitcoin transfers to crypto exchanges and entities A wallet controlled by a German government authority has transferred bitcoin to centralized exchanges Bitstamp, Kraken and Coinbase. The Block Farcaster hits record high in user engagement with over 73,700 unique casters Data shows that the platform reached an all-time high of 73,700 unique casters last week, marking a significant milestone. Market Data The Block US spot bitcoin ETFs report $147 million in net inflows, extending positive streak to 4 days Fidelity’s FBTC led inflows on Wednesday with $57.79 million, followed by Franklin Templeton’s fund that drew in $31.66 million. Fundraising and M&A The Block Ex-Morgan Stanley VP raises $3.5 million pre-seed for algorithmic crypto trading platform Tread.fi Tread.fi, an algorithmic crypto trading platform, has raised $3.5 million in a pre-seed funding round led by New Form Capital. Mining The Block Dept. of Energy begins process of drafting a new bitcoin miner survey After the first version drew controversy, the Energy Information Administration is soliciting public feedback. Product Updates and Partnerships The Block Notcoin, 1inch, and Sign launch accelerator for Telegram and TON ecosystems Notcoin is partnering with DeFi OG 1inch and Sign to launch Triangle, an accelerator program to enhance Telegram and TON’s ecosystems. The Block Pyth Network launches ‘Express Relay’ service aiming to eliminate MEV Oracle solution Pyth Network has launched Express Relay, designed to connect leading trading firms to DeFi protocols.