Crypto Market Update

Despite slightly higher than expected jobless claims (238k vs. 235k exp.) and weak housing starts data, rates are rising today, with the US10Y ticking up to 4.27%. The DXY is also rising as investors are pricing a higher likelihood of the Bank of England cutting rates in August after holding them steady today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 opened at new all-time highs and are now showing mild losses. BTC is trading slightly negative today, paring early gains and holding at just under $65k. ETH is showing slight weakness, trading slightly above $3,500, while altcoins are mixed. Microstrategy announced another Bitcoin purchase, accumulating 11,931 BTC at an average cost of approximately $65,883. The purchase brings Microstrategy’s total cost to $8.33 billion at an average of $36,798 per BTC.  

LayerZero Token Launches

Cross-chain infrastructure protocol LayerZero opened claims for its native token, ZRO, this morning. LayerZero implemented a new caveat to airdrop claims, having users contribute $0.10 per ZRO to Protocol Guild in order to claim. LayerZero Foundation estimates the mechanism will raise $18.5 million for the Ethereum development non-profit, and LayerZero said they will match up to $10 million in donations. The “proof-of-donation” mechanism has not been well met by the community, with some taking the stance that airdrops should be a reward for interacting with the protocol and not a pay-to-claim function. LayerZero previously completed a Series B funding round in April 2023, valuing the company at $3 billion. ZRO is currently trading at approximately $3.45, implying an FDV of $3.45 billion, meaning investors in the Series B round are underperforming Bitcoin since then, in addition to having tokens locked and vested.

SEC Closes Investigation into Ethereum 2.0

On Tuesday night, Consensys announced that the SEC had notified them that it is closing its investigation into Ethereum 2.0. The SEC had alleged that sales of Ethereum constituted securities transactions. Consensys requested a letter clarifying Ether’s classification as a security, given the SEC’s recent approval of spot Ether ETFs, identifying the asset as a commodity. Although the SEC dropped its case against Consensys, Consensys is still pursuing its lawsuit against the SEC. Consensys noted that the investigation closure is a significant win for crypto, but they are seeking further clarity for the industry, attempting to get a court decision stating that applications built on Ethereum are not securities brokers, and therefore do not fall under the SEC’s purview. Crypto companies have had success against the SEC in court, and Consensys hopes to continue the winning streak and provide clear rules for decentralized applications.

Technical Strategy

Following a very steep decline from $2.20 down to $0.40 in recent weeks, Shadow has begun to show some initial evidence of trying to stabilize. Hourly charts show the act of rallying multiple times to near $0.61 before failing but pullbacks have begun to bottom at higher lows over the last few days.  Its pullback Thursday from $0.60 down to $0.55 looks appealing given the minor uptrend still not giving way from earlier this week.  Moreover, SHDW appears like an attractive risk/reward at current levels given very well defined risk levels near $0.50 and upside at $0.61.  Any daily close back above $0.61 should allow for a rally up to at least $1.10 with a good likelihood of $1.31 being tested before some consolidation into July.  At present, SHDW is certainly worth keeping a sharp eye on, given the stabilization following its recent steep decline. Important support under $0.50 lies near $0.40 and cannot be violated without postponing its advance.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.41T +$41B (1.74%) BTC Dominance 54.14 % (-0.23%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$113B (0.00%) In Exchanges +$20B (-0.70%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$2.3M (0.11%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.4687 (-0.1180) Binance -0.7330 (0.3637) Bitfinex -0.0232 (-0.0462) Bitmex +0.2984 (-0.4185) ByBit +0.8714 (-0.1286) Deribit -0.0758 (0.3781) Huobi +1.4077 (1.4077) Kraken +0.7358 (0.7720) Mean +0.4687 (-0.1180) OKex +0.1331 (0.6739) Sentiment BMI : 35 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $66,345 (1.64%) Spot Basis +$249 (0.38%) Volume 360,979 (-56.01%) Open Interest 294,430 (0.15%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 17,984 (-29.25%) Open Interest 267,956 (0.57%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.4346 (-20.13%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4620 (1.09%) All metrics as of 2024-06-20 12:00:27 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.28T $64,685 -0.54% 53.16% ETH $430B $3,518 -1.11% 54.62% 0.95% SOL $62B $134 -2.59% 31.99% -13.82% DOGE $1.1M $0.0011 -18.83% -98.72% -99.16% All prices as of 2024-06-20 13:40:59 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -32.38% $35 -0.23% 50.21% -1.92% ETHE -3.57% $33 2.90% 68.49% 10.01% News Quick Bits CoinDesk VanEck's Spot Bitcoin ETF Goes Live on Australia's Biggest Stock Exchange The VanEck Bitcoin ETF, the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), debuted on Thursday. CoinDesk Stablecoin Issuers Now 18th Largest Holder of U.S. Debt Stablecoin issuers are fast emerging as a significant source of demand for the U.S. Treasury notes as concerns about Washington's debt management grow. CoinDesk Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Acquires 11.9K More Bitcoin for $786M The company held 214,400 bitcoins as of the end of April, which at current prices would be worth about $14 billion. The Block LayerZero Foundation to begin ZRO token airdrop claims today A total of 85 million ZRO tokens, LayerZero's native cryptocurrency, will be distributed to eligible participants on Thursday. Market Data The Block Bitcoin dominance surges past 50% again despite market volatility Bitcoin’s market dominance shot up to 52.92% over the weekend, climbing up from below 50% at the end of May. Decrypt.co Bitwise Ethereum ETF Notes $100 Million Pantera Interest and Seed Investment in Filing Bitwise noted because having an interest in making an investment is not a legal commitment, Pantera could buy more, less, or none at all. Regulation CoinDesk Jump Crypto Adds $10M to Industry's U.S. Political War Chest, Raising PAC to $169M Jump Crypto put another $10 million into the U.S. political action committee (PAC) that's seeking to rush as many pro-crypto members into Congress as possible to achieve legislation the industry is after, a spokesman for the PAC confirmed. The Block Consensys still plans to pursue lawsuit against US SEC: report Consensys announced yesterday that the SEC said it is closing the investigation in Ethereum 2.0, which started in 2023. Mining The Block Bitcoin miner OTC selling remains high as reserves drop to multi-year low: CryptoQuant Bitcoin miner reserves have dropped to multi-year lows while OTC selling has increased to its highest daily volume since March, data shows.