Halving Day Arrives, Excitement Builds Over Runes Launch

Apr 19, 2024

Market Update

  • Happy Halving Day to all. It has been another volatile 24 hours for crypto markets, with war-related headlines sending risk assets lower overnight. BTC 0.12% briefly dipped below the $60k mark but has since recouped all its losses and is now trading above $64k. ETH 0.77% followed BTC's initial drop, trading below $2900 last night, but it has now rebounded to above $3000. SOL 1.86% has shown remarkable resilience amid the turmoil, now trading above $145 after briefly falling below $130. Other standout performers today include JTO, the native token of Jito Labs—a liquid staking and MEV infrastructure network on Solana—as well as TIA 1.00% , the native token of the data availability layer Celestia, and AR -1.57% , the native token of the storage network Arweave. Meanwhile, traditional markets are mixed, with the tech-heavy QQQ down 1.5% today and the SPX down 0.50%. Yields have moved lower today, likely reflecting a risk-off mentality rather than for inflation-related reasons, as the VIX has climbed back above 18. In just a few hours, the Bitcoin network will undergo its fourth halving, reducing the block rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block—a decrease in the annual inflation rate from roughly 1.8% to 0.9%.
  • The story on flows remains mixed, with ETFs posting another day of negative flows—albeit a minor outflow day—while stablecoins, in aggregate, continue to show net growth.

Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat


Source: DefiLlama, Fundstrat


  • Bitcoin block 840,000, coinciding with the block reward halving on April 19th, will also see the debut of Runes, a new standard for issuing fungible tokens directly on Bitcoin, developed by Casey Rodarmor of Ordinals fame. Runes is positioned as an alternative to the BRC-20 tokens, which are dependent on off-chain indexers and the Ordinals inscribing method. Unlike BRC-20, Runes operates through embedded scripts in Bitcoin transaction outputs, called "runestones," which utilize the blockchain's UTXO system to store balances and facilitate transactions. This allows Runes to integrate with the Bitcoin Lightning Network for faster and cheaper transactions. Runes are one of the many reasons that investors are excited about bitcoin over the coming quarters. Transaction fees on BTC have spiked recently, likely caused by individuals speculating on BRC-20 tokens ahead of the Runes launch, or simply moving funds on chain in anticipation of a burgeoning DeFi ecosystem.

Source: Glassnode, Fundstrat



  • Tether has announced plans to expand the use of its USDT and XAUT tokens on The Open Network (TON), aiming to enhance peer-to-peer transactions among Telegram's estimated 900 million users. This initiative is designed to better integrate these tokens within the TON ecosystem, potentially increasing their utilization in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. This strategic move is intended to boost liquidity and activity on TON, which now operates independently after separating from Telegram due to regulatory issues. The integration also merges fiat and crypto transfers efficiently. Complementing this expansion, Tether has introduced a recovery tool that allows for the migration of USDT across different blockchains.

Daily Technical Strategy

profile image

Mark L. Newton, CMT

Head of Technical Strategy

Mark is out today, and therefore, we are resharing his analysis form from yesterday.


Following a near complete roundtrip to its run-up into March, BONK is looking increasingly attractive following recent consolidation down under $.000017. While counter-trend buy signals of exhaustion are not yet in place, these should be evident by next week on any further decline and the risk/reward looks increasingly quite attractive. To have evidence that BONK has achieved a meaningful bottom that could lead back to highs, it's essential that price reclaim the area at $.00002126 which lines up with a former base of support. Surpassing this should allow for a meaningful move up to $.00002950 and eventually up to test all-time highs just above $.000040. The area near February lows two months ago should serve as solid support to any further weakness over the next couple weeks, but BONK looks excellent to consider buying dips after its recent decline.

Daily Important Metrics

Crypto Size

Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing

Market cap $2.35T +$71B (+3.10%)
BTC Dominance
54.29% (+0.46%)
Stablecoins

Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal

In Circulation $109B(+0.40%)
In Exchanges $18B(-0.10%)
BTC Metrics

A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage

# BTC in Exchanges 2.3M(0.36%)
Funding Rates

Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish

Aggregate-0.71 (-0.96)
Binance0.20 (0.92)
Bitfinex-0.02 (-0.02)
Bitmex-1.04 (-1.33)
ByBit-0.57 (-1.18)
Deribit-1.81 (-1.46)
Huobi0.47 (-2.72)
Kraken0.13 (-0.63)
Mean-0.71 (-0.96)
OKex0.39 (0.42)
Sentiment
Halving Day Arrives, Excitement Builds Over Runes Launch

BMI : 47 (0.00%)

Futures

A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish

CME BTC Price$65,100 (3.70%)
Spot Basis
$87.71 (0.13%)
Volume862,030 (-21%)
Open Interest
261,605 (-2.03%)
Options all exchanges

Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector

Volume25,173 (-22%)
Open Interest293,570 (3.17%)
Volume Put/Call Ratio0.6756 (32%)
Open Interest Put/Call Ratio0.4793 (3.58%)

All metrics as of April 19, 2024 1:54 PM

All Funding rates are in bps

Crypto Prices

Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD
btc imageBTC
$1.28T $64,765 3.10% 53%
btc imageETH
$371B $3,086 1.64% 36% -18%
btc imageSOL
$65B $146 6.11% 44% -9.39%
btc imageDOGE
$22B $0.1534 3.27% 72% 19%
btc imageADA
$17B $0.4714 4.84% -20% -74%
btc imageDOT
$9.8B $6.81 1.81% -16% -69%
btc imageLINK
$8.2B $13.97 3.04% -6.65% -60%
btc imageMATIC
$6.7B $0.6795 1.15% -29% -83%
btc imageNEAR
$6.0B $5.60 -0.44% 56% 2.30%

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)

Symbol Premium to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD
BITW -32% $32.75 1.17% 41% -13%
ETHE -26% $21.74 0.45% 12% -41%

News

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MARKET DATA

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Bitcoin Spot ETFs Register Five-Day Withdrawals Streak Ahead of Halving

GBTC again led the outflows, while inflows into BlackRock's IBIT continued to slow, provision data from Farside show.

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Market volatility has resulted in a substantial $152 million in cryptocurrency liquidations over the past 24 hours.

REGULATION

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WEB 3.0

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