Falling Bitcoin VIX confirming prices may have found their short-term bottom
Given the recent crypto market volatility, we are writing a bit more frequently to help ourselves and our readers better assess where the market may be headed. In our Sunday night note, we discussed how the market may be seeing an exhaustion of sellers. In our Monday night note, we discussed how that may have driven the market bounce we saw. On Tuesday and Wednesday (today), crypto markets have calmed down and more or less stabilized with Bitcoin now sitting around $39k.
Source: Bloomberg
The Bitcoin volatility index (VIX), which has surged over the past month from 75 to 160, has started to sharply fall since Monday, and now sits at 115. We view this as another bullish short-term indicator. We see further room for the BTC VIX to fall as a positive sign that could help move crypto markets higher as fear fades.
Source: T3 Index
Many investors right now are searching for the direction of prices over the medium term and are wondering – was the $65,000 price we saw in April the high for the year or is the crypto bull market still intact?
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg
We’ll say for now that – we see some indicators that are slightly less rosy than before but on balance they leave us on the bullish side over the balance of the year. More on this to co...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...