Market Update

Crypto markets extended last week’s rally over the weekend, with BTC briefly rising above $65k and ETH above $2.8k. They have trimmed some of their gains, with Bitcoin trading at $63.3k and Ethereum slightly above $2.7k. AI-related tokens have been outperforming ahead of Nvidia earnings set for this Wednesday. FET, RNDR, and AKT have gained 69%, 38%, and 25%, respectively over the last seven days. U.S. equities are moving lower to start the week, with the SPY 0.09%  declining to $560, the QQQ to $475, and small-caps showing relative strength, with the IWM rising to $222. Macro data to watch this week includes consumer confidence tomorrow, GDP data on Thursday, and July PCE on Friday. With the clear signal that the Fed will cut in September, the conversation has moved to whether the first decrease will be 25 or 50 bps, with markets currently pricing a 69.5% chance that it will be 25 bps.

Multiple Complaints Filed Against FTX Reorganization Plan

The U.S. Trustee overseeing the FTX bankruptcy filed a complaint outlining ten issues with the bankruptcy estate’s reorganization plan. Some of the larger points included legal exemptions for many involved in the bankruptcy, unequal reimbursement among creditors, and the refusal of the estate to remove the costs related to a data breach of one of its service providers. The Trustee argues that creditors should not bear the cost of an internal data breach and that smaller creditors receiving a smaller percentage of claims compared to larger creditors is unfair given the estate has enough funds to pay everyone the same higher percentage. Additionally, a representative from one of the largest creditor groups filed a complaint, arguing that creditors should have the option to receive in-kind distributions to avoid large taxable events. The objections come after 95% of creditors who submitted votes voted in favor of the reorganization plan. No other complaints against the reorganization plan can be submitted before the case confirmation hearing on October 7th, where the judge will decide whether the plan is feasible or not. If approved, funds can be distributed to creditors shortly after.

Telegram Founder and CEO Arrested

Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov was arrested on Saturday in France by the National Anti-Fraud Office. Durov was placed in French custody ahead of a possible indictment for charges related to failing to censor criminal activity on the Telegram app. The French magistrate has until Wednesday to decide on whether or not to press charges against Durov. TON, the native token of Telegram’s blockchain network, fell over 11% on Saturday following the news and has continued to sell off amid uncertainty, currently trading at $5.58. Telegram has released a statement saying Durov has nothing to hide and that Telegram abides by all European laws, including the Digital Services Act. The statement also pointed out that Durov should not be held responsible for any abuse of the platform by its users. The Twitter account for the TON Network affirmed its support for Durov and said that the TON team remains focused and fully operational.

Technical Strategy

Despite the technically damaging selling pressure into early August, the daily cycle composite for Ethereum suggests that early August might have represented a meaningful bottom. ETH has had a very reliable 279 day trading cycle going back over the last decade, and this looks to have bottomed as of two weeks ago and has begun to turn higher into October.  Price will need to confirm this upward bias in the cycle by closing back above 2800, but this likely could help price start to rally up to resistance levels near 3300, then $3800.  Overall, a move back above May 2024 peaks at $3973.73 are necessary before weighing in on the prospects of a new intermediate-term rally getting underway.  However, ETH has begun to show promising signs of having bottomed out and a move back above 2800 likely should serve to confirm a bullish rally into late October.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.23T $-17.9B(-0.80%) BTC Dominance 56.34 % (0.28%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$118B (0.00%) In Exchanges +$21B (0.31%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$3.0M (0.03%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.4942(0.1501) Binance +0.1032(-0.8928) Bitfinex +0.0602(0.0602) Bitmex +0.3289(0.5011) ByBit +0.7137(-0.2584) Deribit +0.5976(-0.3115) Huobi -0.3802(-0.3802) Kraken +0.4746(0.2447) Mean +0.4942(0.1501) OKex +1.1969(0.4810) Sentiment BMI : 47 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $63,640(-0.27%) Spot Basis +$37(0.06%) Volume 267,884(-11.49%) Open Interest 297,192(0.68%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 9,098(-31.56%) Open Interest 292,765 (0.22%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.5425 (10.17%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4638 (1.14%) All metrics as of 2024-08-26 16:24:39 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.26T $63,603 -0.85% 50.60% ETH $327B $2,720 -1.66% 19.55% -20.61% SOL $73B $158 -1.52% 54.89% 2.85% HNT $1.1B $6.72 5.31% -82.18% -88.17% DOGE $200,139 $0.0002 -10.18% -99.78% -99.85% All prices as of 2024-08-26 16:24:19 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -26.11% $34 -0.26% 47.77% -1.88% ETHE -0.44% $23 -0.90% 18.93% -21.03% News Quick Bits CryptoSlate Argentina introduces Ethereum education in high schools The Ministry of Education in Argentina has partnered with the ETH Kipu Foundation to integrate Ethereum and blockchain technology into the Buenos Aires high school curriculum, according to a recent announcement. The program aims to equip Buenos Aires high school students with knowledge of Ethereum and blockchain technology. This move is expected to prepare the […] The post Argentina introduces Ethereum education in high schools appeared first on CryptoSlate. CoinDesk Telegram Says it is Compliant With EU Digital Services Act After Founder Pavel Durov's Arrest The company says its CEO has nothing to hide as Toncoin's losses subside. Bitcoin.com Sony Block Solutions Labs Introduces Soneium, an Ethereum L2 Project Sony Block Solutions Labs, an initiative by Sony Group, recently introduced Soneium, an Ethereum layer two (L2) blockchain. Designed to seamlessly connect Web3 and Web2, Soneium promises enhanced scalability, efficiency, and a developer-friendly environment. The project’s goal is to make blockchain technology more accessible by integrating it into mainstream applications. Soneium: Sony’s Bold Step Into […] Market Data BTC Manager Semler Scientific expands Bitcoin portfolio with $5m purchase Semler Scientific has expanded its Bitcoin holdings to over 1,000 BTC, signaling continued confidence in the crypto as a strategic investment. Semler Scientific, a medical tech company, is intensifying its Bitcoin strategy with the purchase of an additional 83 (BTC)… The Block Bitcoin inflows hit $543 million last week amid hint of interest rate cut: CoinShares Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments last week buoyed inflows across digital assets and crypto investment products, according to CoinShares. Regulation Coin Telegraph US Trustee challenges FTX reorganization plan, citing legal concerns The objections raised by the US Trustee and the creditor group are likely to play a significant role in the court’s deliberations. The ongoing FTX reorganization proceedings have taken a new turn as the US Trustee overseeing the case has raised significant objections to the crypto exchange’s amended reorganization plan. The Trustee, Andrew R. Vara, along with a group of creditors, has filed complaints highlighting multiple flaws in the proposed plan, which the FTX estate has touted as having widespread creditor support.This follows a claim by the bankrupt crypto trading platform FTX that its amended reorganization plan gained overwhelming preliminary support from creditors entitled to vote. Read more Fundraising and M&A The Block Ethereum research firm Chainbound raises $4.6 million to develop transaction preconfirmation protocol Bolt Preconfirmations will unlock sub-second transactions on Ethereum, significantly speeding up the average seven-second confirmation period.