Crypto Survives Weekend Sell-Off, Hong Kong Approves Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
Market Update
- Crypto prices suffered steep declines over the weekend following news of Iran launching drone strikes at Israel. Bitcoin and Ethereum reached respective lows of $60.8k and $2.85k, while many altcoins saw drops of over 20%. Open interest (OI) across all coins on Friday was $48 billion, and after the rapid price declines, approximately 25% of that was wiped, with total OI of about $36 billion at the time of writing. BTC (-2.81%) and ETH (-1.37%) have rebounded slightly with Bitcoin trading at $64.0k and Ethereum at $3,100. ONDO (-1.32%) has emerged as one of the strongest performers throughout the downturn, trading almost 10% above Friday’s open as RWAs remain a leading altcoin sector. U.S. equities are mirroring crypto's declines, with the SPY and QQQ losing 0.87% and 1.37%, respectively. U.S. treasury yields are continuing to gain today as hotter-than-expected retail sales data is adding fuel to inflation concerns.
- Hong Kong has approved applications for multiple spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. In our view, the Ethereum approval carries more significance given many investors already have access to Bitcoin via other investment products, and the lack of clarity on whether the U.S. will approve pending Ether ETF applications. Bitcoin ETFs have had resounding success in the U.S. since launching, and we could potentially see a similar flows dynamic with the launch of an Ethereum product. The ETF approvals mark a significant milestone in Hong Kong’s journey to become a global crypto hub, and although unlikely, the approval overseas could have an impact on the SEC’s decision. The next deadline for Ethereum ETF applications in the U.S. is in May, and it's expected that they will be declined.
- Solana developers have released a network upgrade to address the congestion issues that have been plaguing users over the past few weeks. There have been many reports of users having transactions fail or increased confirmation times. Increased memecoin activity has driven an increase in Solana users and transactions, with almost 40 million daily transactions last week, the highest figure since May 2022. The network has been struggling to keep pace with the increased demand, but Solana developers released validator software v.1.17.31 last night and recommended MainnetBeta Validators update to help alleviate the congestion issues. This is the first upgrade in a series of planned upgrades to handle high network traffic. SOL (-8.08%) fell to $115 on Saturday but has since rebounded to $139.
Daily Technical Strategy
Mark L. Newton, CMT
Head of Technical Strategy
This weekend's deterioration resulted in a break of the short-term triangle pattern for Bitcoin which had held since March and makes it necessary to have patience before expecting an immediate bottoming out in the days ahead. Structure and momentum turned short-term negative on the break of $67k in BTC resulting in a pullback which nearly touched March lows before this attempted to bounce into early this week. Overall, it's likely that BTC might revisit $60.7 into the upcoming halving. However, the cycle composite which shows a bottom in many risk assets by end of week likely could also translate into BTC's pullback being an appealing risk/reward on weakness. Given the upward sloping momentum on weekly and monthly charts, this minor weakness in BTC should prove short-lived and not too damaging before a rally back to new all-time highs. Key levels on the upside to watch lie at $68k on rallies, then $72k. Any move over $72k on a daily close should carry BTC back to 80K, making this recent weakness an attractive opportunity for those looking to buy dips. Only a move under $56k would damage the technical situation enough to suggest weakness into next month. At present, this looks premature and the upcoming halving should represent an attractive opportunity for BTC given recent weakness.
Daily Important Metrics
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All metrics as of April 15, 2024 11:48 AM
All Funding rates are in bps
Crypto Prices
| Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
 BTC | $1.26T | $63,971 | ↑ 0.12% | ↑ 51% | |
 ETH | $373B | $3,109 | ↑ 1.09% | ↑ 37% | ↓ -15% |
 SOL | $62B | $139 | ↑ 0.92% | ↑ 37% | ↓ -15% |
 DOGE | $22B | $0.1519 | ↑ 0.68% | ↑ 71% | ↑ 19% |
 ADA | $16B | $0.4590 | ↑ 1.77% | ↓ -23% | ↓ -74% |
 DOT | $9.6B | $6.71 | ↑ 2.46% | ↓ -17% | ↓ -69% |
 LINK | $8.1B | $13.79 | ↑ 2.06% | ↓ -7.85% | ↓ -59% |
 MATIC | $7.0B | $0.7076 | ↑ 4.27% | ↓ -26% | ↓ -78% |
 NEAR | $5.6B | $5.25 | ↓ -1.79% | ↑ 46% | ↓ -5.73% |
Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
| Symbol | Premium to Nav | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
| BITW | ↓ -32% | $33.14 | ↓ -1.25% | ↑ 42% | ↓ -9.24% |
| ETHE | ↓ -22% | $23.26 | ↓ -2.27% | ↑ 20% | ↓ -32% |
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