BTC to New ATH Market Cap, Negative ETF Flows on Friday (But There's a Twist)
Market Update
- $BTC has soared to a new all-time high market cap, and is currently hovering just above $67k, with its sights set on $69k. Meanwhile, $ETH is slightly behind, inching up to just under $3600. The market appears to be adopting a barbell strategy, with Bitcoin maintaining its strength, yet beyond meme coins, few assets are significantly outperforming. The sustained rallies in $DOGE, $BONK, $PEPE, and $SHIB unmistakably signals the resurgence of speculative enthusiasm in the market. On the crypto equities side, COIN is outperforming, reaching a new YTD peak and its highest level in over two years, while MSTR is also surging, potentially aided by a short squeeze. Interestingly, the miners are not faring as well, mostly showing declines for the day. This could be attributed to several factors, including the massive rally they enjoyed last year, coupled with a persistently high 10Y yield, and lingering concerns about the halving event and its impact on their profitability due to the reduced block reward. We still view these as outperformers this year. In traditional markets, equities are showing mixed performance, with major indices remaining relatively flat so far today. Interest rates are up, but the DXY remains flat. Non-digital gold continues its ascent as well, marking another YTD high today. A wealth of macro data is on the agenda this week, including Services PMI tomorrow, JOLTs on Wednesday, an ECB rate decision on Thursday, and additional employment data on Friday.
- On Friday, despite a net inflow of $350 million into all ETF products excluding GBTC, Bitcoin ETFs collectively experienced a net outflow of $140 million. This was primarily due to nearly $500 million in outflows from GBTC. We suspect that the substantial GBTC outflows observed on Thursday and Friday, nearly $1 billion in total, may be linked to redemptions associated with the Genesis bankruptcy proceedings. It is plausible that Genesis is redeeming their GBTC shares, previously acquired as collateral on loans issued, to redeem cash and subsequently purchase Bitcoin. They would then pay this BTC to Gemini, their top creditor. This theory aligns with Gemini's recent announcement, indicating their intention to return BTC to their Earn customers in kind. Therefore, we conjecture that the bulk of the GBTC outflows could essentially be net neutral. Based on the premiums observed on Coinbase today, it seems likely that we will witness a shift back to an aggregate net inflow.
Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat
- The NFT market is witnessing a subtle yet significant revival, underscored by a surge in activity across various ecosystems. Bitcoin Ordinals, for instance, experienced a dramatic increase in trading volume, exceeding $50 million yesterday—a peak not observed since December—with premier NFT collections such as NodeMonkes and Bitcoin Puppets achieving notable appreciation. Meanwhile, Ethereum-based projects are capturing increased interest as well. A CryptoPunk, categorized among the scarce "Alien Punks," was purchased for 4,500 ETH ($16.03 million), securing its position as the second-highest transaction in the history of CryptoPunk sales, both in terms of USD and ETH. These events collectively signal increased speculation in the NFT market.
Daily Technical Strategy
Mark L. Newton, CMT
Head of Technical Strategy
Bitcoin Cash finally joined suit in the recent acceleration being seen in many tokens as this rose over 40% this past weekend to exceed the lengthy consolidation base that had been intact since last June. Saturday's gains brought $BCH up to the highest levels in more than two years and bodes well for additional intermediate-term gains following some initial consolidation. Upside targets lie at $696 which approximates the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone of its prior 2021-2022 decline. Additional upside levels are found near $880 which represents a 50% retracement level of the same prior decline and should be important on an intermediate-term basis. Volume spiked sharply to the highest levels since last June and while near-term momentum has become overbought, monthly momentum has not yet exceeded 70 per RSI. Thus, while many might view BCH has being overbought after this past weekend's surge, this looks to be the start of some much-needed mean reversion and its 2024 prospects look bright.
Daily Important Metrics
All metrics as of March 4, 2024 12:00 PM
All Funding rates are in bps
Crypto Prices
Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
BTC | $1.31T | $66,723 | ↑ 6.26% | ↑ 58% | |
ETH | $428B | $3,563 | ↑ 2.65% | ↑ 57% | ↓ -1.39% |
SOL | $57B | $129 | ↓ -1.64% | ↑ 27% | ↓ -31% |
ADA | $27B | $0.7727 | ↑ 6.22% | ↑ 30% | ↓ -28% |
DOGE | $25B | $0.1752 | ↑ 24% | ↑ 97% | ↑ 39% |
DOT | $13B | $9.86 | ↑ 1.40% | ↑ 22% | ↓ -36% |
LINK | $12B | $20.11 | ↓ -2.12% | ↑ 34% | ↓ -24% |
MATIC | $11B | $1.11 | ↑ 2.93% | ↑ 16% | ↓ -42% |
NEAR | $4.5B | $4.30 | ↓ -1.86% | ↑ 19% | ↓ -39% |
Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
Symbol | Premium to Nav | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
GBTC | ↑ 1.04% | $37.25 | ↑ 4.78% | ↑ 1.09% | ↓ -57% |
BITW | ↓ -42% | $24.10 | ↑ 3.88% | ↓ -1.87% | ↓ -60% |
ETHE | ↓ -9.62% | $19.73 | ↑ 4.50% | ↑ 1.39% | ↓ -57% |
BTCC | ↑ 0.36% | $8.07 | ↑ 3.46% | ↓ -1.34% | ↓ -59% |
News
MARKET DATA
CoinDesk Tether's USDT Stablecoin Touches $100B Market Cap, Benefiting From Crypto Trading Frenzy USDT, a stablecoin issued by Tether, hit the $100 billion market value for the first time in its history, according to CoinGecko data, as the rally on crypto ma... |
The Block Crypto funds saw record $30 billion in trading volume last week, dominated by bitcoin The crypto funds also registered their second-largest weekly net inflows of $1.8 billion, dominated by U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. |
The Block Memecoins ‘rallying hard’ as retail-based market participation increases: QCP Capital Memecoins such as Dogebonk and Shiba Inu are 'rallying hard' as retail-based market activity increases, analysts said. |
NFTS
The Block Bitcoin Ordinals, Milady Maker interest surges as optimism seeps into select NFT projects Prices and trading volumes for some nonfungible tokens are surging as Bitcoin appears interested in challenging its all-time high. |
CoinDesk Bitcoin NFT NodeMonkes Sells for $1M as BTC Inches Toward $69K Bitcoin-based collections traded more volume than Ethereum collections in the past 24 hours, which shows network adoption as bitcoin prices inch closer to highs... |
MINING
The Block Bitdeer develops 4nm bitcoin mining chip for upcoming rig Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer said it hopes to support the community to get prepared for the bitcoin halving event expected to occur in April. |
WEB 3.0
CoinDesk USDR Issuer Tangible Plans to Redeem Itself as a Layer-2 for Real-World Assets First came the literal redemption for failed stablecoin USDR. Now comes the metaphorical redemption as Tangible changes its name to re.al. |
CoinDesk Omni Network Signs $600M Restaking Deal With Ether.Fi to Enhance Security Liquid restaking protocol Ether.Fi will commit $600 million worth of ether {{ETH}} in a delegation deal to secure the Omni Network. |
Reports you may have missed
MARKET COMMENTARYA PRETTY SIZEABLE MISS IN TODAY'S CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY REVERSED MOST OF THE GAINS EXPERIENCED IN THE CRYPTO MARKET OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. Consumer sentiment came in at 67.4, well below market expectations of 77.2. 1Y inflation expectations came in at 3.5%, well above the market forecast of 3.2%. We saw the DXY 0.00% turn sharply higher on the move, and most risk assets sold off. BTC 0.46% fell from...
U.S. equity indices are showing modest gains today following weekly jobless claims coming in higher than expected, showing 231k versus 212k estimated, putting downward pressure on the DXY 0.00% (-0.21%) and rates. The $SPY has gained 0.36%, approaching the $520 mark, while the $QQQ has risen 0.14% to the $440. Crypto assets are showing larger gains, with BTC 0.46% (+1.57%) rising above $62k and ETH -0.05% (+1.05%) surpassing $3,000. The Render Networkâs mobile app, OctaneX, was featured in Appleâs keynote presentation earlier...
The crypto market declined overnight, with BTC 0.46% dropping from $63k to $61k, SOL -0.93% from $150 to $145, and ETH -0.05% dipping below the $3k mark once again. The likely cause of the drawdown was upward pressure on the DXY 0.00% and a lack of follow-through in flows. Among the few outperformers of the day were RUNE 4.72% , the native token of the cross-chain swapping protocol Thorchain, and Ethereum Classic (ETC 0.20% ), possibly driven by...
Rates are broadly lower again on Tuesday, with the US 10Y nearing 4.4%, down from 4.7% just under a week ago. Risk assets are on the rise, with both the $SPX and $QQQ showing gains today. Crypto performance is mixed so far, with BTC 0.46% retesting the $63k level after US market open, following a rally to just over $64k in the early morning hours. Meanwhile, ETH -0.05% is still hovering just...