Crypto Weekly (Sept. 11th, 2019)
Weekly recap...
- Ahead of the Bakkt launch on 9/23, the Fed Chair Powell piled on to the negative sentiment currently permeating crypto-markets.
- Network data monitoring tools have improved significantly over the past year — a big plus for data transparency in the space.
- Our model suggests total breakeven BTC mining cost = $8500; cash breakeven cost = $7300.
Center Story
1. Fed's critcism of crypto overshadows first stage of Bakkt product launch
On the same day Bakkt began accepting deposits and withdrawals (last Friday, September 6), Jay Powell was in Zurich where he expressed skepticism on behalf of the Fed towards the viability of and demand for cryptocurrencies.
Recently it seems like good news helps less than bad news hurts. Still, the Bakkt launch at the end of this month is a very good development in the markets for improving price discovery.
What else to know...
Bakkt's futures product launches September 23. Trading hours: 8:00 PM - 6:00 PM (next day) EDT; daily settlement window between 4:58 PM and 5:00 PM.The contract size = 1 BTC with a minimum price fluctuation of $2.50 per bitcoin ($2.50 per contract).Block trades may be executed at $0.01 per Bitcoin ($0.01 per contra...Reports you may have missed
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
We wrote on Thursday about how the reaction to recent macro data has been quite underwhelming. Crypto broadly rallied in response to a cool CPI number, but indicators such as a muted Coinbase premium and low exchange volumes suggest animal spirits are still lacking. Muted volumes relative to market prices, and low social interest as proxied by Google search trends further evidence a lack of risk appetite in the market....
OVERALL, IT WAS A GOOD CPI/FOMC DAY As any market observer knows by now, CPI came in remarkably cool yesterday. May CPI data was soft across the board, with headline inflation at 0.0% M/M vs. 0.1% expected and core inflation at 0.2% M/M vs. 0.3% expected. The unexpected data fueled a violent rally across all risk assets as rates fell, and the futures market started to price in additional cuts,...
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