Ethereum Staking Withdrawal Date Confirmed, SEC Chief to Testify in Congress

Mar 29, 2023

Market Update

  • Crypto and Equities are rising, with the S&P up 1.07% while $BTC gained 3.82% over the last day. No news is good news as investors regain comfort that the financial sector has stabilized each day that passes without another crisis. Core PCE inflation is scheduled to be released this Friday. Known as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, it could either strengthen or weaken the market’s conviction that the Fed may be at the end of its rate hiking cycle. $ETH is underperforming Bitcoin, gaining only 1.73%. Yesterday the Ethereum Foundation released a blog stating they had set a date for the Shanghai / Capella upgrades (Shapella), which will enable withdrawals from network staking. Liquid staking projects $LDO (+12.9%) and $FXS (+19%) both moved higher as investors see the upgrade as a potential catalyst for further LSD product demand. $XRP continues to outperform among the top 10, gaining 8.3% over the last day from continued speculation of a favorable ruling in their case against the SEC.
  • The Ethereum Foundation has confirmed staking withdrawals will be enabled with the Shapella network upgrade on April 12th. Users who staked $ETH on the network as early as December 2020 will finally be able to unstake after the long-awaited upgrade. Over 16m $ETH or ~15% of the circulating supply is currently locked for staking. Investor sentiment has been cautious on $ETH this year due to uncertainty around the upgrade, with the ETHBTC pair falling ~12% YTD. While investors have been focusing on the potential overhang of supply that will now be available to sell on the open market, we believe any sell-off from this would be temporary. We outlined our rationale for this in our weekly note earlier this month. The main reasons are that stakers have already had access to liquidity through LSD products, the mechanisms in place to limit a rush for the exits, and investors already seem to be de-risking given $ETHBTC underperforming. Among proof-of-stake networks, Ethereum has one of the lowest percent of its supply locked for staking. With withdrawals enabled, Ethereum will likely see a rise in the amount of its supply staked on the network.
  • SEC chief Gary Gensler is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee over the agency's approach toward crypto. Representative Patrick McHenry, chairman of the committee, stated the primary focus would be to set a foundation for "laying down a regulatory sphere for digital assets." The hearing will center around the agency's highly criticized approach to regulating crypto assets. US financial regulatory agencies have begun turning up the heat on crypto after being asleep at the wheel through several blow-ups that affected American customers. Regulators have taken several enforcement actions against prominent crypto companies, including Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken, among others. Enforcement actions have been so prevalent that many in the industry have speculated they may be part of a coordinated movement to limit the industry's ability to expand in the US, called Operation Chokepoint 2.0. The hearing may be the first step for a much-needed evolution of digital asset regulation in the US. 

Daily Technical Strategy

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Mark L. Newton, CMT

Head of Technical Strategy

GALA's rally to multi-day highs suggests some reprieve to recent selling after nearly two weeks of decline. $GALA has been slowly but surely stabilizing following its pullback from late January. The near-term trend turned back to bullish on the breakout in March and now its recent consolidation over the last couple weeks also looks complete. The ability to close Wednesday above 0.04077 should allow for a push back up to 0.05, and exceeding that would help spark a larger rally to test former highs made in late January near 0.065 and higher. Recent weakness since mid-March has failed to properly show sufficient technical damage to be negative, and the pattern appears to show steady improvement. Only on a drop under 0.03 would the rally be interrupted, so, barring a material breakdown, longs are favored, and GALA's chart should continue to show intermediate-term improvement as the rally progresses.

Daily Important Metrics

Crypto Size

Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing

Market cap $1.19T +$51B (+4.50%)
BTC Dominance
46.32% (+0.75%)
Stablecoins

Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal

In Circulation $80B(+0.08%)
In Exchanges $13B(-0.76%)
BTC Metrics

A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage

# BTC in Exchanges 2.3M(-0.23%)
Funding Rates

Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish

Aggregate0.29 (0.36)
Binance1.00 (0.28)
Bitfinex-0.01 (0.02)
Bitmex0.70 (0.75)
ByBit-0.19 (-0.45)
Deribit0.33 (0.32)
Huobi0.61 (1.32)
Kraken0.89 (1.17)
Mean0.29 (0.36)
OKex-0.40 (0.43)
Sentiment
Ethereum Staking Withdrawal Date Confirmed, SEC Chief to Testify in Congress

BMI : 68 (127%)

Futures

A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish

CME BTC Price$28,455 (5.53%)
Spot Basis
$73.94 (0.26%)
Volume1.2M (-11%)
Open Interest
305,101 (1.45%)
Options all exchanges

Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector

Volume20,704 (-28%)
Open Interest426,848 (0.42%)
Volume Put/Call Ratio0.8514 (-12%)
Open Interest Put/Call Ratio0.5383 (0.99%)

All metrics as of March 29, 2023 10:23 AM

All Funding rates are on bps

Crypto Prices

Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD
btc imageBTC
$547B $28,284 5.23% 71%
btc imageETH
$220B $1,802 3.79% 50% -20%
btc imageADA
$13B $0.3832 7.63% 55% -15%
btc imageMATIC
$10B $1.12 5.73% 47% -24%
btc imageDOGE
$10B $0.0756 4.27% 7.76% -63%
btc imageSOL
$8.1B $21.10 4.60% 113% 42%
btc imageDOT
$7.3B $6.19 4.29% 42% -28%
btc imageLINK
$3.8B $7.32 7.23% 32% -39%
btc imageNEAR
$1.7B $1.97 6.41% 55% -16%

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)

Symbol Premium to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD
GBTC -37% $16.00 2.50% 93% 22%
BITW -59% $10.79 4.91% 101% 30%
ETHE -52% $8.36 0.97% 76% 4.89%
BTCC 0.09% $5.20 2.56% 72% 0.88%

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