Digital Assets Weekly: August 18th
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Market Analysis
After bumping up against its $12,000 resistance level for the greater part of the week, Bitcoin broke above $12,000 on Monday August 17th and finished the 7D period up 3.8% at $12,316.
Open interest on CME Bitcoin Futures hit an all-time high on Friday ($846M vs last week’s record of $840M) and Bitcoin’s hashrate hit an all-time high over the weekend rising a record 129 TH/s.
Bitcoin has continued its dominance in terms of its YTD performance compared to other asset classes. Notably, gold continues to perform well alongside Bitcoin as the dollar suffers, pointing to Bitcoin’s growing role as a global store of value.
Litecoin, which had lagged all other major crypto assets on YTD basis, led by 6% - 12% this week. Outperformance was primarily driven by bullishness regarding the protocol’s impending privacy upgrade. Referred to as Mimblewimble, the upgrade is expected to help shield the identities of holders of senders while also improving the network’s scalability. It is scheduled for testnet launch in September.
Reports you may have missed
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
