Digital Assets Weekly: July 22nd
Market Analysis
This week, the crypto majors continued their slumber as BTC tightened its trading range between $9,089 and $9,283. The asset finished the 7 days ended 7/20 at $9,164; down 0.8% week over week.
Despite the period of consolidation, Bitcoin remains firmly ahead of gold as the best performing asset class on a YTD basis.
All major crypto assets saw slight dips in price over the week with Litecoin declining the most at -4.2%.
FS Crypto FX 250 had the strongest performance this week with a gain of 6.4%, driven by DeFi projects’ outperformance including Aave (+31%), Ampleforth (+63%), and Kava (+39%). FS Crypto FX 10, 40, and 300 Indexes performed in line with BTC with minor declines of about -1%.
The table below shows the returns of the largest assets and the FS Size Indexes over the year.
Fundamental Valuations
Bitcoin’s P/CMR valuation decreased slightly week over week from 9.1x to 9.0x.
Bitcoin’s market cap to realized value (MV/RV) multiple was unchanged week over week at 1.6x.
The comp table for major crypto asset prices and fundamental valuations is shown below.
Valuation Methodology
The P/CMR ratio is a fundamental valuation method I invented in December 2017 that has historically been a str...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
