Digital Assets in A Post-Cycle World
Our 2022 Digital Assets Outlook presentation covered topics relevant to the current trends and narratives that we typically monitor in the weekly reports. Because of this, we are sending out the presentation for this week in place of the usual weekly format.
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Click HERE for the full copy of this report in PDF format.
On Tuesday, we held our 2022 outlook call. Some of the major highlights include:
A discussion of the significant developments within crypto in 2021 and how they impact the industry's immediate future. Many digital asset investors fear an impending crypto winter. We think that there is sufficient evidence that these fears are remnants of an old paradigm.Historically, crypto has waxed and waned in four-year cycles centered around supply constraints resulting from the Bitcoin halvening. We posit that the four-year cycle is no longer the best way to measure bull and bear crypto markets but rather inflows and demand for blockspace.An often-overlooked element of investing in BTC is the variable liquidity of the market, as some wallets are less likely to liquidate holdings than others. Bitcoin's current supply dynamics can best be described as a powder keg.Bitcoin's current valuation metrics point to a strong buying opportunity c...Reports you may have missed
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
We wrote on Thursday about how the reaction to recent macro data has been quite underwhelming. Crypto broadly rallied in response to a cool CPI number, but indicators such as a muted Coinbase premium and low exchange volumes suggest animal spirits are still lacking. Muted volumes relative to market prices, and low social interest as proxied by Google search trends further evidence a lack of risk appetite in the market....
OVERALL, IT WAS A GOOD CPI/FOMC DAY As any market observer knows by now, CPI came in remarkably cool yesterday. May CPI data was soft across the board, with headline inflation at 0.0% M/M vs. 0.1% expected and core inflation at 0.2% M/M vs. 0.3% expected. The unexpected data fueled a violent rally across all risk assets as rates fell, and the futures market started to price in additional cuts,...
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