Fed Minutes Aftermath
Key Takeaways
- Risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, drop upon the release of the latest Fed minutes, which signals the potential to reduce the balance sheet in Q1 2022. The 10-year has increased over 12% YTD and seems on its way to 2.0% for the first time since 2019.
- Contrary to apparent market trepidation, the implied volatilities of Bitcoin options have been trending downwards over the prior month.
- The leverage ratio has surpassed the levels witnessed during the last major drawdown in early December, meaning if prices continue to grind down, we could see the market incur significant liquidations.
- Long-term holders have flipped from net-sellers to net-buyers over the past week as Bitcoin trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time since September.
- Bottom Line: Given the current macro backdrop, leverage within the Bitcoin market, and recent robustness seen in the altcoin market, we think it’s appropriate to be overweight Ethereum and other leading smart contract platforms. We probably would not bet the farm near-term on BTC but believe there is an opportunity in going long volatility via derivatives strategies.
Bitcoin is a Macro Asset that trades like a Cloud Stock
Markets are ringing in the new year with hawkish expectations as the 10-year rate h...Unlock this article by joining our Community!
An FSI Pro, or FSI Crypto subscription is required in order to access this content.
*Free trial available only on a monthly plan
Already a member?
We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.
Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%Webinars
We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
WEEKLY
COMING SOON
Fireside Chats
Weekly interviews with our research heads about market opportunities and important updates.
WEEKDAYS
Tom Lee's First Word
The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
ON MARKET EVENTS
Tom Lee's Intraday Word
These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
DAILY
Daily Technical Strategy
Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
WEEKLY
Wall Street Whispers
Exclusive insights based on discussions with institutional clients.
WEEKLY
Quantitative Strategy
Quantitative market research utilizing industry-leading analytical methods.
WEEKLY
US Policy
Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
WEEKLY
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
EARNINGS SEASON
Earnings Daily
A multi-faceted update of earnings developments.
UPDATED BI-WEEKLY
Signal From Noise
Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
UPDATED MONTHLY
FSI Sector Allocation
A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
UPDATED MONTHLY
Factor Strategy
List of ETFs based on quantitative models that should outperform the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.
UPDATED MONTHLY
Newton's Upticks
Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
FSI Academy
Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
Community Questions
We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
Community Interviews
Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
First Month Free!
Webinars
Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
WEEKLY
Crypto Comments
Digestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
DAILY
Crypto Market Update
Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
INTRA MONTH
Crypto First Word from Tom Lee
Hear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.
WEEKLY
Crypto Technical Strategy
From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
WEEKLY
Crypto Strategy
A must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.
WEEKLY
Funding Fridays
Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
WEEKLY
COMING SOON
Crypto Events
Never miss another conference, a high-impact software update, or an event that could be market-moving!
NTRA-MONTH
Deep Research Reports
Our consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.
WEEKLY
Crypto Strategy
Keep track of bitcoin sentiment to plan your digital assets strategy.
FSI Academy
Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
Community Questions
We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
Community Interviews
Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
Get access to all the Crypto research on FS Insight
First Month Free!
Webinars
We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
WEEKLY
COMING SOON
Fireside Chats
Weekly interviews with our research heads about market opportunities and important updates.
WEEKDAYS
Tom Lee's First Word
The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
ON MARKET EVENTS
Tom Lee's Intraday Word
These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
DAILY
Daily Technical Strategy
Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
WEEKLY
Wall Street Whispers
Exclusive insights based on discussions with institutional clients.
WEEKLY
Quantitative Strategy
Quantitative market research utilizing industry-leading analytical methods.
WEEKLY
US Policy
Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
WEEKLY
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
EARNINGS SEASON
Earnings Daily
A multi-faceted update of earnings developments.
UPDATED BI-WEEKLY
Signal From Noise
Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
UPDATED MONTHLY
FSI Sector Allocation
A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
UPDATED MONTHLY
Factor Strategy
List of ETFs based on quantitative models that should outperform the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.
UPDATED MONTHLY
Newton's Upticks
Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
FSI Academy
Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
Community Questions
We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
Community Interviews
Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
First Month Free!
Webinars
Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
WEEKLY
Crypto Comments
Digestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
DAILY
Crypto Market Update
Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
INTRA MONTH
Crypto First Word from Tom Lee
Hear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.
WEEKLY
Crypto Technical Strategy
From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
WEEKLY
Crypto Strategy
A must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.
WEEKLY
Funding Fridays
Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
WEEKLY
COMING SOON
Crypto Events
Never miss another conference, a high-impact software update, or an event that could be market-moving!
NTRA-MONTH
Deep Research Reports
Our consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.
WEEKLY
Crypto Strategy
Keep track of bitcoin sentiment to plan your digital assets strategy.
FSI Academy
Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
Community Questions
We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
Community Interviews
Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
Get access to all the Crypto research on FS Insight
First Month Free!
Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
