Crypto break-outs pending? Tight consolidations look bullish
Seeing is believing for many TA’s but traders and investors don’t always have that luxury - Many technical analysts understandably prefer to see technical patterns resolve in one direction or another before committing new capital to a developing trend. We have said it before, pre-judging technical patterns before they resolve can be detrimental to one’s financial health. That’s all fine for starting new positions but most investors are already committed to positions that need to be managed. The alternative approach is to be positioned with an expectation a pattern will resolve in a specific direction and managing the uncertainty with stop losses should the pattern resolve in the opposite direction. Given the volatility within digital assets, that approach may very well prove to be a better tactic in the coming weeks.
Why is this discussion likely important now for digital assets now? Over the past few weeks, most digital assets have traded in increasingly narrow ranges head faking every few days in one direction or the other. Our expectation is many cryptocurrencies will resolve to the upside in the coming weeks given their underlying trend since the March lows remains positive and in the case of BTC, its longer-term trend remains positive. In short,...Reports you may have missed
BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Tuesday produced nearly a textbook breakout which not only exceeded late June and early July highs in ^SPX 0.54% , but also successfully exceeded 3-4 month downtrends for ^SPX 0.54% and DJIA -0.18% . Seven of the 11 S&P Select SPDR ETF’s were higher by more than 3%, and volume was nearly 10/1 bullish on NYSE and NASDAQ, producing a “90% Up day” in volume. Hourly charts show this breakout above the two former peaks...
The SPX showed just minor downside follow-through after Tuesday’s reversal but might not immediately weaken down to prior lows ahead of the US July 4th holiday. As mentioned, prices reversed on cue Tuesday due to a combination of Elliott-wave analysis with Gann analysis which provided price and time targets based on the prior June 16th bottom. I expect that the next couple days might show prices attempting to stabilize and...
Cryptocurrency rally looks to have temporarily stalled out after a sharp three-week rally. Ethereum has stalled out in its relative performance vs Bitcoin, and for now, Bitcoin is an outperformer over Ethereum and should be favored. Weekly momentum remains negative and Cycle composites start to turn lower in early March into April/May, so given low retail interest and not many inflows, this could limit the larger rally continuing to all-time highs...
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