Walking up the mountain gets you farther than running
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin continues to march higher, eclipsing another key milestone and trading above the 200-day SMA. Ethereum is also higher on the week but has met resistance at $3,300. Attention turns to the 50-day SMA.
- Bitcoin’s recent price run has not been as “hot” as its gains would suggest.
- Price action has been largely supply-driven and recent movement of coins onto exchanges could present short-term risk.
- Crypto and meme stocks are on the move this week, presenting an early sign of a risk-on macro environment.
- Our team has observed an interesting weekly trading pattern that has appeared over the past three weekly trading cycles, that features mid-week selling and price increases into the weekend.
- Bottom Line: The market fundamentals remain consistent, and we continue to buy $BTC and $ETH into any near-term weakness.
- Emerging Trends: The Metaverse is gaining widespread adoption with corporates like Visa purchasing NFT avatars. We expect future NFT avatars to do an increasingly better job expressing their owners in the Metaverse.
Weekly Market Recap
Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
