Crypto loses battle in DC but is well-positioned for the war; Recap of weekly price performance; BTC Surpasses 200-Day SMA; Update on EIP-1559; Key data points suggest we are early in this upward trend; The future of gaming lies in crypto
Crypto loses battle in DC but is well-positioned for the war
Last week, we covered the infrastructure bill under deliberation in the Senate due to a crypto provision that was snuck into the bill at the eleventh hour. To recap: the bill had cited a $28.0 billion "pay-for" sourced from tax revenue paid by crypto brokers. This was not a novel concept for the crypto industry, as reputable centralized brokers do, and will continue to, pay the appropriate taxes and meet whichever regulatory requirements Uncle Sam decides to bestow upon them.
The area of concern was related to the broad definition of “broker" used within the bill, which left many in crypto circles to believe that this leaves parties such as wallet developers, miners, and node operators subject to the same tax reporting requirements as centralized brokers. Such requirements would not only be unnecessary (considering said parties are not, in fact, brokers) but would also be entirely impractical as many of the aforementioned entities are individuals or small businesses that do not have the time or resources to file the requisite paperwork to meet said requirements. Consequently, this leaves the door open for possible future regulatory determinations by the SEC and IRS that could render these entities incapable of ...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
