Crypto Strategy: Bitcoin $100k target intact; corporate buyers offer surprise catalyst; Ethereum growing into our $10k target; crypto market on pace to hit $5T
In this week’s crypto strategy note we discuss:
- Bitcoin rebounding from a healthy cooling off period last week as the macro backdrop remains accommodative & bull market remains intact
- Even if Facebook didn’t buy Bitcoin, corporates are coming, and it may not be reflected in earnings announcements yet
- Remaining overweight Ethereum and maintaining a price target of $10.5k as ETH reaches new highs and continues to outperform BTC
- Continue to see more upside in higher beta altcoins vs. Bitcoin as crypto markets are on pace to hit $5T
Bitcoin rebounding from a healthy cooling off period last week as the macro backdrop remains accommodative & bull market remains intact
Bitcoin and crypto markets have been rebounding this week after the prior week’s sell off. A combination of de-leveraging, Bitcoin falling below its 50-day, notable Wall Street firms forecasted a major correction to $20-30k sparking retail fear and the Biden tax plan were all events that took us lower last week.
But market have stabilized and bounced since then.
As we mentioned in our note two weeks ago, we thought a “crypto market cooling off would be healthy”. We’ve seen the price of Bitcoin retrace a little over ~25%, which would qualify as a major correction for traditional markets but...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...