Quick Macro Thoughts

• It’s a confusing time for crypto investors. Equities seemed poised for fresh all-time highs while crypto is stuck in neutral and has lagged stocks for weeks.
• Corporates are still raising capital aggressively to accumulate liquid crypto.
• The majors sit at tough resistance: BTC faces heavy supply in the 105–110k zone, ETH is pinned under its 200-day, and SOL is dealing with the exogenous pressures discussed later on in this note.
• Stocks are also approaching potential resistance at their record highs.
• The market seems to be waiting for a decisive break, either up or down in crypto or a clear breakout in equities (with crypto to follow), before putting fresh money to work. Keep in mind that the majors remain well above their April lows.

• Survey data continues to flag tariff worries (see comments videos from earlier this week). Companies are not rebuilding inventories and hiring remains sluggish while prices paid are trending higher.
• Meanwhile, inflation signals such as oil and copper are starting to push higher.
• Yields have slipped a bit but are still near year-to-date peaks.

This mix suggests a few things.