Core Strategy

While there is no need to “panic chase,” ETH likely begins trading better from here. We should start considering ETH beta names to add if Bessent’s meeting with China this weekend results in a positive outcome. The immediate-term risk/reward is certainly less attractive after BTC’s rally to $103,000 and strong follow-through from altcoins this week, but there are legitimate signs pointing to the U.S. reaching a deal in short order. Given the wide range of possible outcomes and the unpredictable nature of this administration, we believe the right approach is to “read and react” to the results of the meeting rather than fade what has already been a very strong week for crypto.

ETHBTC Finally Makes a Move

Over the past couple of years, we have been skeptical of ETH due to its lack of identity and structural weaknesses, including value leakage to L2s and poor positioning relative to BTC and SOL.

However, we have recently been discussing how the stabilization in the ETHBTC ratio has caught our attention. Just one week ago, we noted that while ETH was not making progress against BTC, it wasn’t losing any ground either. ETHBTC was consistently finding buyers around the 0.018 to 0.019 level (see Comments titled “Is ETH Finally Turni...