Crypto Weekly (Oct. 23rd, 2019)
Weekly recap...
- Bakkt futures hit ATH, will launch options contracts on 12/9/19
- Is quantum computing a threat to BTC?
- Several hurdles expected to improve by year end; still risk-off for BTC
Center Story
1. Bakkt futures just needed a little time... options launch coming next
Bakkt futures daily trading volume has taken off. Was media too quick to judge? Wouldn't be first time.
Variations of "Bakkt futures volume has been disappointing" have been a common refrain since Bakkt's launch at the end of September. But, contract volume rocketed to 640 contracts (~$5mm) on Wednesday. Sustained volume growth will be a sign that price discovery mechanisms in crypto are improving.
One of the key benefits from Bakkt's contract design outlined by Bakkt's CEO, Kelly Loefller, is that prices do not rely on spot trade data:
It is widely reported that the vast majority of trading volume – greater than 90% – is impacted by manipulation, wash trades and other fraudulent activity. This means that for the first time, a benchmark futures price for bitcoin is being set without referencing the unregulated spot market.
Bakkt announced it will be launching the first regulation options contract for BTC futures on 12/9/19. Contract features below...
Capital efficien...Reports you may have missed
BUYERS ON STRIKE Last week, we discussed our immediate-term cautious approach to the crypto market, highlighting recent geopolitical tensions, tax-related selling, negative fiscal flows, and the persistent rise in real yields as reasons for a more risk-averse positioning (albeit relative, as holding 7.5% in cash and the rest in crypto is hardly considered risk-averse in most circles). This uncertainty has persisted into this week, evidenced by what we consider an...
Fiscal Dominance, Flows from China, Plus Some Thoughts on Global Conflict (Core Strategy Rebalance)
WHAT BTC SHRUGGING OFF CPI SAYS ABOUT CURRENT FISCAL SITUATION The most significant piece of macro data this week was the CPI. Headline CPI registered at 3.5%, surpassing the anticipated 3.4%, while core CPI remained steady from last month at 3.8%, also above the expected 3.7%. This increase was largely attributed to rising costs in auto insurance and shelter. Consequently, interest rates saw a sharp rise, with the 10-year Treasury...
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