Uptrends intact as cryptocurrencies challenge 62% retracement bands
Fundstrat Crypto FX indices: A-D lines are in confirmed uptrends with mid-cap continuing to lead
Cryptocurrency breadth, as measured by the Fundstrat FS CryptoFX Advance-Decline lines continue to build positively across the large-cap (FX10), mid-cap (FX40) and small-cap (FX 250) indices. The performance of the FS CryptoFX40 Mid-cap index versus the FX10 Large-cap index is particularly noteworthy, having established a series of higher highs confirming a longer-term upside trend reversal. In addition, the FS CryptoFX 250 Small-cap index has yet to confirm a positive upside trend reversal with higher highs vs the FS CryptoFX 10 large-cap index.
Over the past week, BTC’s 2020 uptrend remains firmly intact as it continues to challenge its next resistance band coinciding with the 50-62% retracements of the 2H 2019 corrections just below its 2018-2019 downtrend.
BTC’s uptrend continues as it challenges 10-11K resistance – Traders: Minor divergences on the 4-hour chart
BTC’s intermediate-term/weekly acceleration from long-term support continues with weekly RSI momentum unlikely to reach overbought levels until late Q2, possibly Q3. Tactically, BTC’s Q1 2020 uptrend remains firmly intact as it challenges its next resistance band between 10-11K, coinciding with a 50-62% retracement of the 2H 2019 decline just below the 2018-2019 downtrend. Looking very short-term at the 4-hour chart, BTC’s uptrend remains intact with first support at its rising 15-dma (90 4-hour) at 9.6K with next support at the 50-dma (300-hour) near 8.5K. While the 10-11K band remains a resistance to monitor for a possible inflection, there is very little evidence yet, beyond a minor divergence of lower highs developing on the 4-hour RSI. For traders, we recommend maintaining trailing stops near the 15-dma at 9.6K.
Noteworthy in Alts
“Something” has changed as ETH reverses its 2018-2020 downtrend AND rallies above .0227 to establish a higher for the first time in 2+ years. As noted above ETH, ADA and NEO are illustrative of many ALTs closing on their next important resistance at their 62% retracements of the 2H 2019 corrections. Slides 10-14
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