Crypto Research
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Crypto takes on Capitol Hill; Recent price action characterized by supply crunch and low exchange volume; Macro picture is uncertain but presents opportunity; Ethereum upside from EIP-1559
CRYPTO TAKES ON CAPITOL HILL Last week, news outlets began reporting on a curious provision tucked away in the 2,700-page, $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill compiled by the Senate. The bill, which is now subject to the Senate amendment process, featured a last-minute, crypto-specific addition that detailed $28 billion of incremental tax revenue resulting from enhanced crypto tax reporting rules. The focal point of the controversial provision was its definition...
Short squeeze takes Bitcoin 40% higher to $40k in a week; Could China’s tech crackdown be a bigger cause and future bullish catalyst than most think?
As a personal note, this will be my last crypto weekly with Fundstrat. It’s been great working with Tom and team, and I’ve learned a lot from Fundstrat over the past nearly two years while here. For those wondering, I’m transitioning to Grayscale where I’ll join the team as the Head of Research. For readers that would like to stay connected, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@David_Grid) or...
Bitcoin rallies off ~$30k support again; crypto outlook remains choppy for now; macro picture softening; Delta variant may help alleviate a key risk for crypto (Fed tapering); Fidelity institutional survey highlights the big picture opportunity
BITCOIN RALLIES OFF ~$30K SUPPORT AGAIN BUT CRYPTO REMAINS IN A CHOPPY MARKET Crypto is still in a doldrums of summer as many investors have taken a sell in May and go away approach. We think these combined factors below are partially why crypto remains in a choppy market environment for now: -Institutional investors taking money off table early in year locking in performance fees -Many institutional investors who were...
Crypto Still Consolidating 1H-21 Gains During Slower Summer Months But Mining Stocks & On-Chain Data Offer Some Positive Early Signs
In our first crypto weekly of 2H 2021, we dive into the following:* Crypto Had Strong 1H vs. Global Assets Despite VolatilityBitcoin Still Consolidating After Sell In May & Go Away CorrectionBitcoin Trading Volume Down As Market Enters Summer DoldrumsEthereum Resuming Outperformance vs. Bitcoin After Recent PauseSmaller Cap Crypto Assets Underperforming vs. Bitcoin But Starting To TurnCrypto Mining Stocks Peaked vs. Bitcoin During Feb & Bottomed Mid-MayInvestors Selling At A...
Thoughts On Stablecoins, Borrowing & Lending Platforms, Earning Yield, Leverage, Risks, & Regulation
In this Crypto Weekly, instead of discussing our usual views on the market, we’re going to talk about something a little different – our thought on stablecoins, borrowing & lending platforms, earing yield, leverage, risks, and regulation. We think it’s worth discussing these areas to expand on our notes from last Friday and Monday on leverage in the crypto lending space and given the House Financial Services Committee holds a...
What the Fed, inflation, tapering & rising rates could mean for the price of Bitcoin
After bottoming on bad news a week ago, Bitcoin and crypto had been rallying heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, but crypto markets fell slightly alongside other major asset classes following the Fed policy statement, and have remained roughly flat this morning. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg The Federal Reserve spooked some market participants with its commentary around inflation expectations, tapering and rising interest rates. Source: Fundstrat, CNBC, New York Times Inflation has...
Bitcoin bouncing in the face of further China crackdowns signals the market is “bottoming on bad news”
Bitcoin and crypto markets have been hit with a wave of bad news headlines over the past couple months and prices have taken a sharp hit in response. China’s regulatory crypto crackdowns have been some of the largest contributors to the market action. This morning, news of further crackdowns started circulating after the major Chinese internet service providers Baidu and Weibo started censoring searches for the three largest Asian crypto...
Crypto markets have remained relatively quiet (although Elon Musk hasn’t) and stable this week. Last week, we wrote several notes about why we thought the market may have found a bottom due to the massive deleveraging, that a falling BTC VIX is indicating peak fear fading, and how news getting “less bad” is good for the market. We didn’t expect the weekend sell-off that many were fearful of, and once...
Given the recent crypto market volatility, we are writing a bit more frequently to help ourselves and our readers better assess where the market may be headed. In our Sunday night note, we discussed how the market may be seeing an exhaustion of sellers. In our Monday night note, we discussed how that may have driven the market bounce we saw. On Tuesday and Wednesday (today), crypto markets have calmed...
China crypto ban made the sell-off worse, but PBOC balance sheet growth matters more than posturing and is not the only key market driver - rally remains intact
In our crypto flash Monday night, we laid out 9 reasons we thought Bitcoin was close to a bottom around $40k. But yesterday crypto markets went for a wild ride. We got yet another sharp move lower below $30k but have since bounce back and are now at $41k. Part of this was due to leverage liquidations, but part of the move was also sparked by negative news of China banning crypto. Source:...
Each night when most people see the darkness ushering in the end of the day, J-P Metsavainio sees his day just beginning. J-P is known as an astrophotographer, but if an artist is someone who creates images that convey one’s passion and beauty, then J-P is the truest of artists. He works with a model that is all around us but has seldom been seen as clearly and magnificently as...