Crypto Research

On Wednesday, the global crypto market experienced some partial relief as the Labor Department released a December CPI figure that met analyst expectations. Consumer prices increased 7.0% over the prior 12 months, up 0.5% from last month.Funding rates in the perpetual futures market turned negative leading up to the CPI print, reducing the near-term risk of a long squeeze.Open interest continues to climb, as we are now well beyond the...

Risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, drop upon the release of the latest Fed minutes, which signals the potential to reduce the balance sheet in Q1 2022. The 10-year has increased over 12% YTD and seems on its way to 2.0% for the first time since 2019.Contrary to apparent market trepidation, the implied volatilities of Bitcoin options have been trending downwards over the prior month.The leverage ratio has surpassed the levels witnessed...

ALPHA OPPORTUNITY: Despite a broad market shift away from DeFi, we think Sushiswap (SUSHI) presents an intriguing opportunity for investors at its current price. We discuss this further below.We note that leverage in the Bitcoin market is increasing, which may signal near-term volatility.Bullish indicators, including exchange outflows, increasing short-term SOPR, and a decreasing put/call ratio point toward a bullish breakout upon any liquidation event.BOTTOM LINE: As Bitcoin’s leverage increases, investors...

The Fed announced an expedited tapering of monetary stimulus and anticipates three rate increases in 2022. We discuss the implications.Based on recent price action, BTC still behaves more like a high-beta tech stock than an asset designed to offset the effects of inflation.This week, SOPR broke through to profitable territory. Short-term SOPR is lagging, which signifies that the market may need to shake out a few more "paper hands" before...

We see Bitcoin’s recent price action coupled with a lack of substantially leveraged positions as an encouraging sign.Hash rate has surged since Friday’s washout, pointing toward a network of miners that feel optimistic about the near-term trajectory of the BTC price.SOPR indicates that the majority of selling pressure is coming from short-term investors who lack conviction in Bitcoin’s current price trend.MVRV has decreased, implying a higher network cost basis, which...

Bitcoin and wider crypto market stalls on macro uncertainty. We provide insights on why we think the party continues through year-end.Bitcoin volatility is still relatively muted compared to historical measures. The Bitcoin “VIX” is approaching a historically bullish range.Seasonal trends point to a favorable environment for BTC and other strong performing cryptoassets in December.Ethereum is trading at a relatively modest multiple of annualized fees. We focus on a pair of...

After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $69,000, we have seen a reset in futures funding markets, and spot demand start to waiver.These pullbacks are not uncommon in bull markets. Since June 2020, there have been 34 daily drawdowns (open to close) of over 5%, largest of which were 14% in May and 13% in January.On chain data further supports our view. As we noted last week, long-term holders...

Bitcoin had a whirlwind of a week, reaching new all-time highs on the back of a historical CPI print, reaching $69,000.Overzealous traders created leveraged long positions margined in crypto and were wiped out in the face of Evergrande headlines.Long-term holders start to take profits as short-term holders enter to fold to provide exit liquidity. This is historically the sign of the early stages of a bull market.We analyze the forward...

After playing second fiddle to Bitcoin during the leading cryptoasset's run at all-time highs in late October, ETH finally got its moment in the spotlight as it surged from below $4,000 last week to reach a new all-time high.Activity on the Ethereum network has increased dramatically in recent weeks as reflected in transaction count and fees paid, indicating increased demand for blockspace.Bullish supply dynamics are also supporting ETH price. The...

The crypto market faced nearly $1 billion in long liquidations on Wednesday morning, stymieing Bitcoin and Ethereum’s momentum and punishing altcoins. We viewed this as generally healthy market behavior and conducive for the next leg up.Long-term holders took profits off of the table following Bitcoin’s recent ATH – selling 39.6k BTC while short-term holders bought 51.3k BTC. The reentrance of short-term holders into the market is generally a good sign...