Crypto Strategy
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CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I will discuss changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. WHY I TURNED TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS LAST WEEK Last week, I outlined several reasons for near-term caution in crypto and recommended raising some cash, tilting long exposure toward BTC, or seeking downside protection via options. Signals of deterioration were building, and the rationale for that stance is...
Reasons For Tactical Caution Despite a Constructive Macro Backdrop (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I discuss the changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. A RECAP Before explaining my tactical shift, it is worth revisiting why I entered Q4 with a constructive stance on crypto and why I have maintained that view in recent weeks:POLICY FRAMEWORK: As I have discussed since the summer months, the administration’s current playbook aims to...
Crypto Showing Signs of Seller Exhaustion as MSTR Returns to Market and Shutdown Resolution Likely Nears
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat LIQUIDITY & GROWTH PRESSURES PERSIST The Treasury’s need to refill its reserves has led to roughly $700B in issuance over the past several months, with no corresponding fiscal outflows back into the economy. This has tightened bank reserves and liquidity conditions and likely reduced passive flows into equities, since a portion of those Treasury payments would have otherwise found...
TOKEN & EQUITY PORTFOLIOS Source: Artemis, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat OLD WHALES & NEW BUYERS It seems like every other week, we are greeted with a headline along the lines of _“Satoshi-era wallet moves $5B of BTC mined on a laptop back in 2011.”_ Recall the whale back in July that sold 80,000 BTC (>$9B) through Galaxy. The market flinched on the news but eventually absorbed this supply like it...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CHANGES TO TOKEN AND EQUITY PORTFOLIOS WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE END OF THIS NOTE. A lot has transpired over the preceding few days. In today’s note, we will walk through the events, discuss the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history, and discuss how we are viewing the setup in the near/medium term. THE TIMELINE OF EVENTS (FRIDAY & SATURDAY)On 10/9, Beijing...
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CONTEXT FOR THIS WEEK IS IMPORTANT It was a tough week for crypto. BTC continued to grind lower while alts were hit hard, the result of several overlapping headwinds.The weakness started last Friday into monthly options expiry and was followed by a sharp leverage wipe on Sunday. Thin liquidity, combined with capital chasing new coins such as ASTER and...
Two New Additions to the Crypto Equities Basket, Positioned for TradFi Adoption of the Next Major (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat ADDING: HYPE CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat ADDING: HYPD, SONN ADDING HYPD & SONN TO EQUITIES BASKET AS HYPE CARVES A PATH TO $100 Every cycle, a new player emerges as the next “major.” In 2017, it was ETH. In 2021, it was SOL. In 2025, it is HYPE. Despite being only a few quarters old, HYPE has quickly established itself as a token...
MARKET SURVEY In partnership with the Medici Network, we are conducting a client survey on DATs, ETFs, and broader sentiment. Aggregated results will be shared with clients. The survey takes ~5 minutes, and broader participation will make the insights more valuable. Thank you in advance for your participation. CLICK HERE TO COMPLETE THE SURVEY. OUR QUICK TAKE ON THE CRYPTO MARKET:Gold’s push to all-time highs is a constructive signal for BTC,...
Miran’s Nomination Pulls Upside Risk Forward, Plus an ETH Chart Deck (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY We will address changes at the end of this note. Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat QUICK SIDENOTESWe produced an ETH chart deck for clients this week. You can find the report HERE.I will be traveling next week and will not be publishing during that time. I understand this coincides with CPI week, and I appreciate your patience and understanding. If a crypto-related emergency arises,...
The Near-Term Setup for Crypto Appears Challenging, But Friday’s Developments Present a Compelling Bull Case for BTC (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY We will discuss changes made to our Core Strategy and Crypto Equities Portfolio at the end of today’s note. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat WRAPPING UP A CONSEQUENTIAL WEEK IN MACRO We’re wrapping up what was a pivotal week in macro, and by extension, crypto. At the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell struck a more hawkish tone than markets were expecting,...
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat WHALE GAMES Last week, shortly after BTC hit a new all-time high of $123k, we noted movement from a wallet created back in 2011. An OG whale was transferring ~$9.5B of BTC to Galaxy, presumably in a large OTC deal, with some BTC also making its way to exchanges for sale. This activity triggered a roughly 6% drawdown from...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat BOOK SOME GAINS ON “HIGH FLYERS” A month ago, we added SBET to our crypto equities portfolio. This was a bet on ETH outperformance as well as premium expansion from SharpLink, a company that had just undergone a massive selloff following subpar treasury strategy execution and was trading at ~1.6x NAV. We’ve since realized a ~4x gain (vs 14%...
