Crypto Strategy

Despite improving liquidity conditions and favorable seasonality offering reasons for optimism, the ongoing trade war remains the dominant driver of crypto’s next move. As such, we believe it’s prudent to stay patient. We’re increasing our Core Strategy allocation to USDC to 50%, keeping altcoin exposure minimal as we assess the potential fallout from the Liberation Day tariff announcements. While this may seem discouraging, the roadmap has become more straightforward: we...

While some of the risks that prompted our cautious stance in early February have been partially mitigated, most remain—with the ongoing trade war still the most pertinent. Therefore, we believe it remains prudent to exercise patience. That said, improving liquidity conditions, favorable seasonality, and the possibility of a budget-neutral BTC acquisition strategy offer reasons for optimism. Regardless of the direction, depressed implied volatility (BVIV < 50) suggests that a significant...

While some of the risks prompting our cautious stance in early February have been partially mitigated, most still persist—with the ongoing trade war being most pertinent. Thus, we believe it's prudent to remain patient. However, reading between the lines, there is a non-zero possibility that next week, we will receive material information regarding potential "budget-neutral" methods the US government could employ to acquire BTC. Depending on details revealed, this could...

CORE STRATEGY Most of the risks that prompted us to turn cautious in early February still persist, so we believe it’s right to remain patient. However, the near-term (2–4 weeks) setup is starting to look compelling for a tactical rally as sentiment is miserable, liquidity conditions are improving on the margin, a lot of risk has already been priced in, and we’ve seen serious capitulation and deleveraging. All eyes will...

CORE STRATEGY There is a chance that MSTR flows spark a short-term bounce here, but assets further out on the risk curve continue to face headwinds from ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade and monetary policy. Although the current administration takes a pro-crypto stance, there appears to be no immediate catalyst to revive market enthusiasm. We still anticipate that crypto will outperform this year, but until we see further progress on trade/monetary...

CORE STRATEGY With lingering trade war talks and robust economic data dissuading a dovish Fed pivot, we think the potential for downside volatility remains elevated. While regulatory developments and institutional adoption continue to bolster the medium- to long-term outlook, no immediate “good news” seems likely. Nevertheless, we still expect crypto to outperform this year. Until we see flows return to crypto, raising cash/trimming altcoin positions appears prudent (BTC dominance higher)....

CORE STRATEGY With the looming threat of an escalating trade war and economic data robust enough to discourage a more dovish Fed stance, we believe the upside risk for the DXY and yields has increased in Q1. Moreover, the market remains highly volatile and headline-driven, inhibiting the crypto market from gaining meaningful momentum. While regulatory developments are a key medium- to a long-term tailwind for crypto, it is unlikely that...

Developments since the inauguration confirm that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, a possible TGA spenddown, and favorable seasonality, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat POWELL MAKES SOME EDITS When the FOMC statement was first released on Wednesday, it carried a distinctly hawkish tilt. The language reflected a more optimistic view on employment...

Recent developments since the inauguration suggest that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. We believe there is still significant upside headline risk in the early days of Trump's term. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, as well as substantial inflows into the crypto ecosystem, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat THE LAUNCH OF TRUMP COIN This past weekend will...

CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...

CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...