Crypto Strategy

IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will be out of the office through Friday and will publish selectively if warranted by market conditions. PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _NOTE: SEE THE END OF THIS NOTE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE LATEST REBALANCE._ STOPS GET HUNTED The crypto selloff accelerated throughout the weekend, with BTC falling to ~$74k, ETH to ~$2,150, and SOL to ~$96. 24-hour liquidations across perpetual futures markets reached...

PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat WARSH IS FED CHAIR NOMINEE Reports late Thursday afternoon indicated that the White House was preparing to support Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh surged to over 90% probability on Polymarket around 7:00 p.m. on Thursday, overtaking Rick Rieder. On Friday morning, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he was moving forward with Warsh as his...

PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _Note: Changes to both portfolios are discussed at the end of this note._ THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto remained measured from a medium-term perspective but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the...

PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBitGo is a cycle-tested institutional crypto infrastructure platform, founded in 2013, with a custody-first, full-stack offering spanning qualified custody, staking, prime brokerage, settlement, and stablecoin infrastructure.The company went public on Thursday, raising approximately $200 million in primary proceeds at $18 per share, implying a ~$2.1bn market cap.BitGo uses qualified custody as a wedge to onboard institutional clients, then increases monetization per dollar...

PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto was still measured from a cyclical perspective, but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the near-term risk reward had begun to skew favorably. The key drivers behind...

CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat _See commentary on the rebalance at the end of this note._ TACTICAL SETUP LOOKS CONSTRUCTIVE Sometimes, a simple calendar turn is all an asset class needs to fall back into favor with investors. In the weeks leading into year-end (following BTC’s rejection at ~$94k), I laid out the reasons it made sense to detach from crypto markets. We were...

Thank you to everyone who joined my annual outlook call today. Below are several high-level takeaways, along with the latest Core Strategy and Crypto Equity portfolios. Click here to download the presentation deck. THE HEADWINDSNEAR-TERM RISKS MOUNTING: Q1 risks to crypto include a potential government shutdown, renewed trade policy volatility, waning confidence in AI capex returns, and uncertainty around the Fed Chair transition, all of which could pressure markets currently...

CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat TLDR On 11/12, I highlighted an accelerated deterioration in market conditions and recommended raising cash or adding downside protection. By 11/18, early signs of capitulation were emerging, and I argued that we were due for at least a short-term bounce. I was admittedly a couple of days early, as BTC briefly revisited the low $80k range after trading near...

CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I will discuss changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. WHY I TURNED TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS LAST WEEK Last week, I outlined several reasons for near-term caution in crypto and recommended raising some cash, tilting long exposure toward BTC, or seeking downside protection via options. Signals of deterioration were building, and the rationale for that stance is...

CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I discuss the changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. A RECAP Before explaining my tactical shift, it is worth revisiting why I entered Q4 with a constructive stance on crypto and why I have maintained that view in recent weeks:POLICY FRAMEWORK: As I have discussed since the summer months, the administration’s current playbook aims to...

CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat LIQUIDITY & GROWTH PRESSURES PERSIST The Treasury’s need to refill its reserves has led to roughly $700B in issuance over the past several months, with no corresponding fiscal outflows back into the economy. This has tightened bank reserves and liquidity conditions and likely reduced passive flows into equities, since a portion of those Treasury payments would have otherwise found...