I asked for a sanity check last week since the S&P 500 index was selling at a 16 P/E and Treasuries at over a 100 P/E but the response was simple panic. Indeed, in the frenzied and sharply downward trading last week in reaction to the spread of coronavirus, or COVID-19, it seems the market sees the cure as worse than the disease.

That is, it appears increasingly possible that the volatile lurching in financial markets could drive the US economy into a recession, a self-fulfilling prophecy. The market has digested a lot of negative news in the past week, leaving little room for a sanity check.

Several companies drew down credit facilities, like Boeing (BA), Wynn Resorts (WYNN); the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic; President Trump’s initiatives fell short of expectations. Tom Hanks and his wife Rita revealed they tested positive for COVID-19 and major league sports have suspended their play.

So the disruption is becoming tangible in the US. and “price discovery” remains non-existent in equities. By that, I mean the market is so uncertain that stock prices are moving in unison on one or two simple macro factors, with high correlations to each other, instead of on their own corporate merits.

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