Key Takeaways
- In an unprecedented break from tradition, a draft SCOTUS opinion was leaked to the press. What are the implications for 2022 midterms? Will the politics of abortion change the outcome?
- Biden has requested $33B in aid for Ukraine– it has been delayed by a squabble over whether to add Covid treatment money to the bill. Visits by Speaker Pelosi and First Lady Jill Biden should ensure action by Memorial Day on Ukraine money.
- Covid absences in Senate delay votes on two nominees for Board Governors and Powell’s second term as Chair.
While the Fed’s action increasing interest rates by 50bps was the main issue impacting markets; the political world faced the reality that the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) was on the verge of overturning the Roe decision that made abortions legal in the US. The expected decision should come as no surprise as the 6-3 conservative majority has been largely expected to rule against the Roe precedent.
Politics of abortion
Since my earliest days in politics, abortion has been a central issue in many campaigns. Shortly after the 1973 decision the Republican Party embraced the position that the constitution should be amended to outlaw abortion. Democrats were split with a handful taking an anti-abortion position, but the vast majority favored choice and supporting Roe vs Wade.
Advising candidates for the House and Senate, a basic assumption has been that “pro-life” voters were often one issue voters. If you were not “pro-life” you didn’t get their vote. This hard core attitude and near unanimity among Republicans made the anti-abortion voters a key part of the Republican coalition that elected both Bushes, Reagan, and Trump. It has also been a central part of the coalition that has delivered majorities to Republicans when they captured the House and Senate.
The dilemma for Democrats is that “pro-choice” voters have not been single issue voters. Many abortion choice voters have ignored a Republican’s view on abortion and voted Republican because of issues such as taxes, foreign policy, and government spending. Assuming the SCOTUS sets aside Roe, these swing voters will have to make a very tough decision in November; will they too become single issue voters and turn against Republican candidates with whom they agree on tax, spending, and national defense or continue to vote Republican and overlook their candidate’s stance on abortion. With polls showing 60%+ opposing repeal of Roe this is likely to be a central issue in November midterms.
I once advised a Republican running for the House who supported abortion rights – he lost. In the next election he ran again but changed his position on abortion and supported a constitutional amendment outlawing abortion. He won! Intellectually he convinced himself that a constitutional amendment would never clear the two-thirds vote in Congress required to go to the states.
Traditionally, the Supreme Court releases its biggest decision at the end of the term which is the end of June. It is not clear if the leak will speed up the usual SCOTUS timetable. For Democrats the decision may change the subject from inflation to the future of abortion in the US. At this point it is not clear if this will be enough to help Democrats break the track record of the party in the White House losing seats in midterms. With only a six seat majority in the House, and a tied Senate, Democrats face a daunting task at maintaining control of either chamber.
Ukraine
Outside the furor over the draft SCOTUS decision, the Congress is considering the President’s request for $33B in aid to Ukraine. When the House left for a break last week they wanted to add the President’s request for a $10B Covid treatment program to the popular Ukraine assistance bill. However, Republicans in the Senate oppose linking the two bills. Senate Republican Mitt Romney has been leading bipartisan talks on the Covid treatment legislation, but he has joined the Republican leadership in opposing the linking of the two bills.
The visit by Speaker Pelosi likely changed the calculus on the Ukraine aid, and put the bill on a very fast track. After meeting personally with President Zelensky and seeing firsthand the needs Ukraine has, it is hard to believe that she would delay passage of the Ukraine package over a domestic issue such as Covid relief. The House is scheduled to leave on May 20 for their Memorial Day break; it seems unlikely that they would go home without passing the Ukraine package.
Fed Governors
The Fed acted last week with only five of the seven Governors seated. Two vacancies remain as the Senate has not voted on Biden nominees Philip Jefferson and Lisa Cook. Cook, who is an economist who teaches at Michigan State, has been opposed by Republicans who voted unanimously against her in the Banking Committee. While the Jefferson nomination got bipartisan support in the Banking Committee, the Democratic leadership has linked the two nominations so both must pass at the same time. Assuming all Republicans will vote to oppose Cook, to win approval in the 50/50 Senate Cook will require the votes of all 50 Democratic Senators and a tie-breaking vote by the Vice President. Covid positive tests by the VP and two Democratic Senators has delayed voting, but Cook and Jefferson should be confirmed by the June FOMC meeting.
The stalling has also delayed a vote on Chair Powell’s nomination for a second term as Fed Chair. Powell’s vote in the Senate Banking Committee was 23 to 1 with only Senator Elizabeth Warren opposing. Once all 50 Democratic Senators and the VP are able to come and vote Powell should also be re-nominated with a large bipartisan vote.
