Democrats Done, Republicans On Deck – Democrats held a surprisingly successful virtual convention showing the diversity of the party, including a primetime presentation from Republicans disenchanted with Trump and well produced portraits of Joe Biden telling his compelling story of grief and success. From the opening star-spangled banner sung by 50 children to the young boy talking about how Joe Biden helped him deal with his stutter, it was a professional production. The key speeches by Michelle and Barack Obama, VP candidate Kamala Harris, and the closing speech by Joe Biden were well delivered with themes that set the tone for the fall campaign. In my view, it set a high bar for Republicans next week.
Nearly all polls, even those showing Biden with a double-digit lead, show strong support for President Trump’s handling of the economy; reminding voters of the Republican economic management style will be a central message for the convention. The President appears to have chosen the Nixonian theme of Law and Order as a key message for the campaign. There are reports that the St. Louis couple that were photographed holding guns outside their home as BLM protesters marched by will appear at the convention. Having lived through the 60s I can remember entire city blocks being burned to the ground, and people killed by the violence; I think that the largely peaceful protests haven’t created the large scale threat to civil society that Nixon faced in the 60s. However, it is hard to dispute that Donald Trump knows his base supporters, and has developed a unique ability to connect with them. The President as consummate salesman will be on full display at the Republican Convention.
Coronavirus Relief – While unemployment claims topped 1 million again, there were no breakthrough developments in the effort to find a compromise between Congressional Democrats and the White House to deliver a Phase 4 coronavirus relief bill. Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to hold good cards in this poker game as Senate Republicans are deeply divided on whether to approve any bill. The political math is clear. To get a deal through Congress, the President only needs to deliver 13 Republican Senators to get a bill to his desk. His support is key in striking a deal with Democrats; and unlike fiscally conservative Republican Senators, the President wants to get checks out to the workers who have lost their jobs and who voted for him in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio in 2016.
I will be watching what happens when the House meets on Saturday to pass a Postal Service bill that will include $25 billion for the USPS. Will Democrats who have been back in their districts the last two weeks implore the Speaker to move quickly on a relief package? Pelosi has been demanding a $2 trillion bill, while the White House has been stuck at $ 1 trillion; but on key programs such as supplemental unemployment benefits at some level, a $1,200 individual stimulus check, replenishing the PPP program and assistance to reopen schools the two sides are largely in agreement.
On September 4, the Labor Department will release the August job numbers which could kick start the talks if they remain stalled at that point and lead to a bill passing the second week of September. But I had expected legislation by this point, so we will see. There is some talk in DC of combining a relief package with the Continuing Resolution (CR) that will be required to keep the government running past October 1 and the beginning of the new fiscal year. The CR is a “must pass” bill and if Congress doesn’t act in the next few weeks, it may be the vehicle for a final coronavirus relief package.
