Countertrade consensus into and after Jackson Hole. Probabilities favor a rally pre- and post- Jackson Hole. Large-cap Tech (FAANG) and Growth

Countertrade consensus into and after Jackson Hole

We think Fed Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole at 10am ET (8/26) is a buyable event. That is, under any of the following 3 scenarios, we are buyers of equities:

  • Powell hawkish –> speaks of need to stay tough on inflation and markets might weaken. But we buy equities as leading indicators show inflation is set to weaken = future P/E expansion
  • Powell vague –> markets fear Powell sounds data dependent. We buy any weakness as the above still holds true
  • Powell possibly dovish sounding –> economic weakness is garnering momentum, plus labor market set to soften which means inflation set to fall. Future P/E expansion

So, ok, we sound repetitive, but the main point is that we are counter-trading consensus.

Consensus thinks Fed will bring on the “hammer” to quash inflation

Based upon my conversations with investors, most share the viewpoint of the Bloomberg article below:

  • investors are too optimistic
  • inflation will be a problem for years
  • Fed will “reset” expectations
  • prepare for earnings apocalypse
The video in this report is only accessible to members

But this takes me back to a basic question. Today, does the Fed really need equity markets to fall?

this made sense earlier in 2022 to “cool demand” broadlynow that there is gro...

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