Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)
Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:
HEADS UP: I am taking a vacation this week, so there will not be “scheduled” market commentary July 12th to July 16th. COVID-19 daily updates will be sent, without market color. But if there is significant market turmoil, we will do INTRADAY commentary.
POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 28,517, up +10,299 (ex-FL) vs 7D ago… Positivity rate (7D avg) now over 5%…
Current Trends — COVID-19 cases:
*** Florida and Nebraska stopped publishing daily COVID stats updates on 6/4 and 6/30, respectively. We switched to use CDC surveillance data as the substitute. However, since CDC surveillance data is subject to a one-to-two day lag, we added a “US ex-FL&NE” in our daily cases and 7D delta sections in order to demonstrate a more comparable COVID development.
The latest COVID daily cases (ex-FL) came in at 28,517, up +10,299. As shown in the chart below, cases have been rapidly surging over the past 4 weeks, and it seems like the rate of this increase is accelerating. Currently, the 7D delta in daily cases is approximately 10,000, which means the case figure could exceed 50,000 in two weeks. Although there has not been any comprehensive study on the composition of the recent new infections, quite a few media sources have reported that the vast majority of recent new cases has been amongst unvaccinated individuals (i.e. LA County and Mississippi). Therefore, the effort to push more people to get vaccinated remains key. The good news is that according to the CDC, 88.9% of age 65+ population received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 79.3% are fully vaccinated. And we know the elder population is more vulnerable to the disease compared to younger individuals. Hence, even though cases are surging, the death toll might not follow the case trend.
Currently, TN, OK, AR, AL, MO, SC, and, NV are the states with the largest increase in daily cases compared to their recent lows (as shown in the “parabolic” tracker below), while all 7 states except NV have less than 50% of their populations vaccinated with at least one dose. This is consistent with what we mentioned above regarding the majority of new cases being amongst unvaccinated individuals, and with what we noted previously, vaccination penetration appears to have some causal relationship with the case trend. Therefore, the COVID developments (both the case and vaccination trends) in these states along with the other low vaccinated states (such as MS, LA, GA, ID, WY, ND, IN) are worth watching.
7D delta in daily cases has been about 10,000, flat-lined over the past few days…
Low vaccinated states seem to have a larger increase in daily cases compared to their recent low…
– The states with higher ranks are the states that have seen a more significant rise in daily cases
Current hospitalization and positivity rates are rising… Daily deaths also seem to be turning upwards now…
POINT 2: VACCINE: vaccination pace is not improving amid the rising case figure… currently half million doses are administered daily…
Current Trends — Vaccinations:
Vaccination frontier update –> all states now near or above 80% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
– Currently, all states are near or above 80% combined penetration
Below is a diffusion chart that shows the % of US states (based on state population) that have reached the combined penetration >60%/70%/80%/90%. As you can see, all states have reached 60% and 70% combined vaccination + infection. 95.5% of US states (based on state population) have seen combined infection & vaccination >80% and 65.6% of US states have seen combined infection & vaccination >90%.
There were a total of 563,632 doses administered reported on Thursday. Over the past 7 days, 526,174 doses were administered per day on average, down 12% from 7D ago. The vaccination speed has not improved even though cases are surging and vaccination seems to help against the variant. The overall vaccination trend has been sliding down over the past 3 months.
As the more transmissible Delta variant gradually becomes the dominant strain in the US, vaccinations could not only provide some degree of protection against the virus but are also likely to reduce virus transmission. As many media sources have reported, the majority of new infections in some regions (LA County, Mississippi) are amongst the unvaccinated people. Therefore, it would be a good sign if we start to see the number of vaccines administered rise. However, we understand that vaccine hesitancy concerns might not easily be reversed. More studies on the vaccine’s side-effects and its efficiency against the variant, as well as government efforts, are key. We will be closely watching the relevant data.
97.7% of the US has seen 1-dose penetration >40%…
– While 97.7% of US states have seen vaccine penetration >40%, 89.1% of them have seen 1 dose penetration >45% and 66.2% of them have seen 1 dose penetration > 50%.
This is the state by state data below, showing information for individuals with one dose and two doses.
The ratio of vaccinations/ daily confirmed cases has been falling significantly (red line is 7D moving avg). Both the surge in daily cases and decrease in daily vaccines administered contributed to this.
– the 7D moving average is about ~30 for the past few days
In total, 333 million vaccine doses have been administered across the country. Specifically, 184 million Americans (55% of US population) have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine. And 159 million Americans (48% of US population) are fully vaccinated.
POINT 3: Tracking restrictions lifting and subsequent effects in individual states
– States in groups 1 and 2 represent states that let their emergency ordinances expire, or that never had one in the first place
So there is a spectrum of approaches. Our team is listing 3 tiers of states and these are shown below.
– states that eased all restrictions in 2020: AK, OK, MO, FL, TN
GROUP 1: States that lifted restrictions in 2020…
GROUP 2: States that have lifted restrictions in 2021 to now…
GROUP 3: States that are still easing restrictions in 2021…
– Easing restrictions appears to have contributed to an increase in cases in several of these states, most drastically in OR, ME, WA, and MN