Thu February 1

Post-FOMC, We See Higher Probabilities for March Cut Than Consensus

On Wednesday, January 31, the Federal Open Markets Committee announced that it would keep its target-rate range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Just as with its decisions since last July, this was...

Fri September 15, 2023

ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.

We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...

Fri June 9, 2023

Strength in stocks YTD is explained by better fundamentals + drop in VIX. And now 26 groups are in solid positive trend (vs 4 a month ago). Next week remains one of most critical of 2023.

The upside breakout in equities puts the S&P 500 near 4,300, a key round number and near the August 2022 highs (4,325). Our base remains that S&P 500 will gain...

Thu May 18, 2023

"Buy the dip" regime back since March 23, 2023 as analysis shows S&P 500 regain 2% losses less than 1 month, reversing "sell the rip" regime of 2022. Stick with FAANG, Industrials and tactically Regional banks.

NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (ABOVE): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS _We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:_ SKIP MONDAY <-- TRAVELING _SKIP TUESDAY Wednesday _Thursday <-- _Schedule...

Wed May 17, 2023

FAANG default risk (CDS) less US govt = more reason to OW (even now). Regional banks see DeMark "13" buy setup = stick along with OW "temporary Fed put"

NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (ABOVE): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS _We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:_ SKIP MONDAY (traveling) _SKIP TUESDAY Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday_...

Wed May 10, 2023

Potentially "hot" April CPI report, testing height Fed pause bar...but so far 2023 is a "game of inches" where bulls gaining. Even global GDP creeping higher.

NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (BELOW): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS Market direction in 2023 feels like a "game of inches" (Al Pacino in Every Given Sunday, see...

Mon May 8, 2023

Post-FOMC fallout creates temporary "Fed put" on regional banks -- hence, recommend 4-6 week tactical OW in regional banks $KRE plus 5 regional stocks

NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (BELOW): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS Last week, we were in Boston visiting with our institutional investor clients. Investors are overall cautious, which...

Fri April 16, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Israel daily cases (per 1mm) now 26 vs 952 (Jan). ND and SD could see "obliteration" by June. Oil prices key to direction of Epicenter trade...

The lag between penetration of vaccines and cases falling is due to a few factors including the fact that vaccines take time to become effective.  And the broader fact, a...

Wed April 14, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Multiple reasons J&J vaccine "pause" not a recovery setback. Epicenter stocks significantly underperformed since mid-March, but EPS revisions = good and Technicals, while damaged, are still positive

3 Deletions: $PBCT, $NVT, $VNO 13 Additions: $AZO, $HOG, $GRMN, $MGM, $WH, $GPS, $LB, $VIRT, $AGCO, $OC, $UBER. $EXP, $NUE 35 "POWER TRIFECTA" STOCKS IDEAS: Consumer Discretionary: $AZO, $HOG, $GRMN,...

Tue April 13, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Global cases within 8% of all-time highs, even as USA down 80%. Energy down 8 of the last 10 days, in past 20 years >8 of last 10 days point to strong 3M gains

But as the global case count below shows, COVID-19 is still spreading wildly and prolifically across the World.  In fact, the 7-day avg cases of 670,000 (and rising rapidly) is...

Mon April 12, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Michigan COVID-19 hospitalizations could surge to new highs in coming weeks. S&P 500 gains YTD explained by +6.4% revisions to 2021 EPS by Street

Is there a common thread to explain this? I am not entirely clear. And of these states, MI seems to be experiencing the worst of the surges. Gov Whitmer has...

Fri April 9, 2021

Epicenter – Stocks with Uncommon Value During Uncommon Times

This list was published in the FIRST WORD dated April 9, 2020. We’ve republished it here in order to highlight it for our valued subscribers. _STRATEGY: UPDATING EPICENTER TRIFECTA LIST  – 24...