Key Takeaways

  • Identifying economic trends is critical to entering and exiting positions. We take you through some of our process for identifying beneficiaries of tactical themes in our Granny Shots portfolio.
  • Keep in mind the importance of not shouting at the market, regardless of circumstances.
  • Remember in investing that less can often be more. We show you how successful active management requires understanding concurrent cycles and market drivers.
  • We use meticulous analysis of historical data and advanced quantitative models to benefit from seasonal and tactical trends in markets and introduce five stocks that we have identified with these processes.

One of the most important things to know before entering a position or tailoring your portfolio: determining which stage in the cycle you’re in. Over time, a natural ebb and flow in economic activity has been repeatedly observed. Expansionary periods lead to peaks, which lead to recessions. The bottom of activity is called the trough, before expansion begins again. With stocks, the economic cycle is an important thing to understand. Indeed, it is central to how we pick stocks in the tactical thematic portfolios of Granny Shots.

Early in expansion credit-related industries, construction, durable consumer goods and tran...

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