Flash — I am going to keep my note short and just address yesterday’s CPI release. I will likely post a follow-up after the FOMC meeting. 

So, Tuesday was the big December CPI release that the market was anxiously anticipating, looking to get important clues regarding what Chair Powell and Gang may do the next day at the FOMC meeting, the minutes, the “DOTS,” and his press conference. 

As the equity market spiked up just after the CPI was announced, I got several messages from clients that are more bullish/dovish commenting about how positive the data was, and they were letting me know that I might be wrong to keep being concerned about the Fed and for the possibility of higher rates.   Inflation is clearly dead, the Fed is finished, and this almost certainly leads to much higher equity prices. 

Over the last several months, I have been the ever-hated in-house bear, on both the equity markets and my forecast that has had the Fed going higher for longer.  There has been a lot of lively discussion and debate, both internally and externally, regarding both topics.

For me over time, I don’t make a lot of pure macro-only calls, but from time to time my work suggests that I should be more vocal as I was during most of 2022.  I a...

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