April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder "never short a dull market"

Tom Lee, CFA
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

VIDEO: We discuss how next week’s April CPI could increase market expectations for more Fed cuts.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:53).

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

The S&P 500 is up ~2% so far this week, very impressive considering it has been a very light week on macro data and Fed speak and also given the “poor” reaction of equities to 1Q24 earnings. There is an adage “never short a dull market” and this week’s nearly 2% gain is a reminder of that. Total gains for S&P 500 in May now top +3.5%.

  • What can we garner from stocks rising in a “dull week”?
    – first, it suggests investors massively de-risked in April, and need to re-risk
    – second, markets may be “course correcting” as “red hot” economy thesis questionable
    – third, the drift higher, in our view, is evidence that the dominant view in markets is “hawkish” and “bearish”
  • Recall, there were many pundits and strategists who argued the top is in for 2024 and they wanted to sell in May. By contrast, our view has been this fear would shift to “buy in May” for the multiple reasons previously discussed.
  • Next week is a very heavy macro week, so the data is coming back on:
    – 5/13 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Apr NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp    3.00%e
    – 5/14 Tue 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism Survey    88.23e
    – 5/14 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Apr Core PPI    0.22%e
    – 5/15 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Apr Core CPI    0.31%e
    – 5/15 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales    0.35%e
    – 5/15 Wed 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing Survey    -11.81e
    – 5/15 Wed 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market Index    51.00e
    – 5/15 Wed 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC Flows   
    – 5/16 Thu 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business Outlook    7.46e
  • The most important is April CPI and even if the report matches consensus of +0.31%, we expect this to be positive for stocks. In other words, we are buying equities ahead of April CPI.
  • Why? We think an “in-line” April CPI will cause the number of Fed cuts to rise from ~1.8 (by year-end 2024) towards 2.5 cuts or more. The rationale, in our view, is that this April CPI will highlight the possibility that auto insurance’s disproportionate impact on CPI is ebbing. In fact, a soft CPI, below consensus is likely solely due to that impact.
  • In 2024, the CPI reports (4 so far) have actually had the opposite effect on expected Fed cuts:
    – post-Dec CPI: Fed cuts fell from 7 to 5
    – post-Jan CPI: Fed cuts fell from 4 to 3
    – post-Feb CPI: Fed cuts fell from 3 to 2
    – post-Mar CPI: Fed cuts fell from 2 to 1
  • But post-April jobs (soft), the number of cuts rose back to 1.8. So, the trend of incoming data pushing down the number of cuts has reversed to an extent. By the way, this is corroborated by the drop in long-term yields and VIX and even USD. And as we know, other central banks have started to cut as well.
  • The key in April CPI, though, is auto insurance. This rose +2.58% in March and was the singular largest contributor to the “hot” March reading (miss). It is not entirely clear if April will show an improvement. But we think each month that passes, this probability rises that the surge in auto insurance is ebbing.

Bottom line: We think April CPI could push higher the number of Fed cuts = positive for stocks

Bottom line, we are still “buy in May.” The fact that stocks rose this week is a positive signal. And next week, we expect incoming data to show overall softening of the key components of inflation.

The seasonals are still favorable as well and as we noted previously, when 1Q is positive + April is negative, May is up 83% of the time. Thus, the favorable probabilities plus the cooling economy and dovish Fed plus cautious positioning point to gains in May.

We still favor those things working in 2024 so far:

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
Source: x.com

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
Source: X.com

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

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Key incoming data May 2024:

  • 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Decision Dovish
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade Balance Tame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor Costs Mixed
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs Report Tame
  • 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
  • 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimisim Survey
  • 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPI
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPI
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales Data
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC Flows
  • 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business Outlook
  • 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle index
  • 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home Sales
  • 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI
  • 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home Sales
  • 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods Orders
  • 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
  • 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige Book
  • 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDP
  • 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE Deflator

Key incoming data April 2024:

  • 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Services Tame
  • 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs Report Hot
  • 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPI Hot
  • 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPI Tame
  • 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales Data Mixed
  • 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMI Tame
  • 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDP Tame
  • 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCE Tame
  • 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost Index Mixed
  • 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data March 2024:

  • 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Tame
  • 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services Tame
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services Committee Dovish
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Dovish
  • 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report Mixed
  • 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPI Slightly Hot (as anticipated)
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPI Mixed
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMI Tame
  • 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP Tame
  • 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE Tame

Key incoming data February 2024:

  • 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
  • 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
  • 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
  • 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
  • 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
  • 2/14 PPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey  Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales Data Tame 
  • 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame 
  • 2/16 8:30am ET January PPI Mixed
  • 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-Month Tame 
  • 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDP Tame
  • 2/29 8:30am ET January PCE Tame

Key incoming data January 2024:

  • 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
  • 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
  • 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
  • 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
  • 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
  • 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
  • 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
  • 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
  • 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
  • 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
  • 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
  • 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
  • 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
  • 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
  • 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
  • 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
  • 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

  • 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
  • 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
  • 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
  • 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
  • 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
  • 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
  • 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
  • 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
  • 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
  • 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
  • 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
  • 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
  • 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
  • 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  • 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
  • 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
  • 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November 2023:

  • 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
  • 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
  • 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
  • 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
  • 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
  • 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
  • 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
  • 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
  • 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
  • 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
  • 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
  • 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October 2023:

  • 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
  •  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
  •  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
  •  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
  • 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
  •  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
  •  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  •  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
  •  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  •  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
  •  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  •  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
  • 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
  •  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
  •  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
  •  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
  •  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
  •  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
  •  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
  •  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September 2023:

  •  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
  •  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
  •  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
  •  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
  •   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
  •  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
  •  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  •  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  •  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  •  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
  •  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision Market saw Hawkish
  •  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  •  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
  •  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
  •  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  •  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August 2023:

  • 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
  • 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
  • 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
  • 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
  • 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
  • 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
  • 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
  • 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
  • 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity Survey Neutral
  • 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
  • 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
  • 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
  • 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
  • 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July 2023:

  • 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
  • 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
  • 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
  • 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
  • 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
  • 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
  • 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
  • 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
  • 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Index in-line
  • 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
  • 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June 2023:

  • 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
  • 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
  • 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
  • 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
  • 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
  • 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May 2023:

  • 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
  • 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
  • 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
  • 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
  • 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
  • 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
  • 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
  • 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
  • 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
  • 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
  • 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
  • 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder never short a dull market

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Tom Lee, CFA
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