ETF Current Outlook
ETF Driven Strategy
Brian Rauscher, CFA
Head of Global Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation

August Outlook 2022
The rally which began at the June lows for the S&P 500 is still making its way higher as it gained some fuel last week after the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference comments, which were taken quite bullishly because of some interpreting that a “Dovish Pivot” had been signaled. I have not and still do not agree with this view and it appears that several well-known economists, Fed watchers, and forecasters also seem to be skeptical. With that being said, the equity market was still oversold and positioning quite negative, and a squeeze has been started. So, there has been some fuel provided for a tactical trade to move equities higher, and my aggressive shorter-term metrics have flipped to favorable.
Although this has occurred, my more strategic indicators that are less sensitive to just daily price changes are still firmly unfavorable, which is why I have retained my cautionary and less than bullish stance that I have had since late March/early April. Some forecasters are feeling quite positive and are calling for additional gains and a small handful for new equity index highs, but respectfully to those who have this view, my indicators do not support this outlook. They suggest that this bear market has not reached its finale. Clearly, as the S&P 500 keeps moving higher, I am in the hot seat and am answering people’s legitimate questions, but I have a process and will stick with it as it has been extremely value-added over time. When my indicators suggest a sustainable investment bottom, I will surely leave my bear cave and go to the top of the mountain to declare my return to being a bull, as I did in March 2020. Unfortunately, that time has not yet come, and my research suggests that the current rally is likely to fail.
Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%
-
MacroFSI Macrofrom$169/mobilled anuallyFirst Month Free!What's included?Webinars and MediaWebinarsWe host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!WeeklyComing SoonFireside ChatsWeekly interviews with our research heads about market opportunities and important updates.ResearchWeekdaysTom Lee's First WordThe best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.On market eventsTom Lee's Intraday WordThese are released periodically after crucial market developments.DailyDaily Technical StrategyDaily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.WeeklyWall Street WhispersExclusive insights based on discussions with institutional clients.WeeklyQuantitative StrategyQuantitative market research utilizing industry-leading analytical methods.WeeklyUS PolicyWeekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.WeeklyWeekly RoadmapWeekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.Earnings seasonEarnings DailyA multi-faceted update of earnings developments.Updated bi-weeklySignal From NoiseHighlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.Stock ListsUpdated quarterlyGranny ShotsThematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.Updated monthlyBrian’s DunksSingle stock pics that are poised to outperform the index by leveraging sector outperformance and earning revisions strategies.Updated monthlyFSI Sector AllocationA sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.Updated monthlyFactor StrategyList of ETFs based on quantitative models that should outperform the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.And More!FSI AcademyOur main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.Community QuestionsWe gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!Community InterviewsGet questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.Get access to all the macro research on FSInsight
-
MacroFSI Macrofrom$199/mobilled anuallyFirst Month Free!What's included?Webinars and MediaWebinarsWe host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!WeeklyComing SoonFireside ChatsWeekly interviews with our research heads about market opportunities and important updates.ResearchWeekdaysTom Lee's First WordThe best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.On market eventsTom Lee's Intraday WordThese are released periodically after crucial market developments.DailyDaily Technical StrategyDaily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.WeeklyWall Street WhispersExclusive insights based on discussions with institutional clients.WeeklyQuantitative StrategyQuantitative market research utilizing industry-leading analytical methods.WeeklyUS PolicyWeekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.WeeklyWeekly RoadmapWeekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.Earnings seasonEarnings DailyA multi-faceted update of earnings developments.Updated bi-weeklySignal From NoiseHighlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.Stock ListsUpdated quarterlyGranny ShotsThematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.Updated monthlyBrian’s DunksSingle stock pics that are poised to outperform the index by leveraging sector outperformance and earning revisions strategies.Updated monthlyFSI Sector AllocationA sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.Updated monthlyFactor StrategyList of ETFs based on quantitative models that should outperform the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.And More!FSI AcademyOur main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.Community QuestionsWe gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!Community InterviewsGet questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.Get access to all the macro research on FSInsight
-
CryptoFSI Digital Assetsfrom$79/mobilled anuallyFirst Month Free!What's included?Webinars and MediaWebinarsOngoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.WeeklyCrypto ChatsDigestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.ResearchDailyCrypto Daily ReportStay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.Intra monthCrypto First Word from Tom LeeHear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.WeeklyCrypto Technical StrategyFrom Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.WeeklyCrypto WeeklyA must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.WeeklyFunding FridaysAre you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!WeeklyComing SoonCrypto EventsNever miss another conference, a high-impact software update, or an event that could be market-moving!Intra-monthDeep Research ReportsOur consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.Update dailyBitcoin Misery IndexKeep track of bitcoin sentiment to plan your digital assets strategy.And More!FSI AcademyOur main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.Community QuestionsWe gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!Community InterviewsGet questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.Get access to all the crypto research on FSInsight
-
CryptoFSI Digital Assetsfrom$99/mobilled anuallyFirst Month Free!What's included?Webinars and MediaWebinarsOngoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.WeeklyCrypto ChatsDigestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.ResearchDailyCrypto Daily ReportStay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.Intra monthCrypto First Word from Tom LeeHear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.WeeklyCrypto Technical StrategyFrom Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.WeeklyCrypto WeeklyA must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.WeeklyFunding FridaysAre you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!WeeklyComing SoonCrypto EventsNever miss another conference, a high-impact software update, or an event that could be market-moving!Intra-monthDeep Research ReportsOur consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.Update dailyBitcoin Misery IndexKeep track of bitcoin sentiment to plan your digital assets strategy.And More!FSI AcademyOur main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.Community QuestionsWe gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!Community InterviewsGet questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.Get access to all the crypto research on FSInsight