My work still suggests that the ongoing equity bounce that began at the October bottom and has been working its way higher is a counter-trend bear market-rally that will end. Admittedly, it has gone further over a much longer time span than both my indicators and macro views were signaling. The shift by Chair Powell from his clearly decisive hawkish comments at Jackson Hole in August 2023 to his perceived dovishness during February 2023, while still communicating the same base case of higher for longer, has been dramatic, unexpected, and puzzling to many, including myself.