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COVID-19 UPDATE. NYC still linear, Manhattan FLAT. And why S&P 500 doesn't have to fall 50% even if EPS is down 50%

The question of how much 'bad news' financial markets can absorb will be seen in the next few weeks.  The March employment report is out this Friday (although survey period was earlier in March before strict measures in place) and then we move onto earnings season. The COVID crisis is unfolding on two fronts, the leading edge of this cycle is a healthcare crisis and behind that, the economic aftershocks follow. 

With each day, there is incremental Healthcare progress and of course, the key is seeing the epicenter peak, which is NYC.

POINT #1: NYC showing steady case growth (linear not exponential), linear > exponential
The latest update (3/31/2020) for NYC was posted this evening and the daily new cases is flattening, which is a good thing and potentially suggests the spoke on 3/30 (we wrote about yesterday) might be the anomaly.  Even Queens, which saw 2,019 new cases yesterday is 50% lower and frankly, the 1,000 per day for Queens seems more like the trend. 

- This is virus and virology, so it is better for us to simply observe that New York City is still seeing a high number of cases, but it does seem like it is no longer growing exponentially.

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And Manhattan, has been steady for 3 days at between 350-500 cases per day (below) and this is still well below the peak...

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