April jobs report reminds us “bull markets bottom on bad news” + Paul Tudor Jones says Bitcoin reminds him of 1970s gold…

The April jobs report is the worst ever in the history of the world with >20 million job losses. And this figure is so horrific, there is no way anyone can spin this figure as "half full" -- it is a terrible and tragic figure and shows how much Americans are suffering the consequences of a pandemic that nobody asked to happen.

But the equity markets rallied today with the S&P 500 close above 2,900 and pulling further away from the key 50% retracement level (2,794).  The S&P 500 is within striking distance of the 200D mavg 3,002. 

I don't think stocks are "ignoring" bad news -- that is simply impossible.  Every minute, every investor in the world is faced with this tragic reality--we are largely working from home and in a country that is largely shut down.  Perhaps, computers are not aware of this.

Same jobs getting hit... the 25 industries that shed 96% of the jobs in March shed 70% of the jobs in April
In the April jobs report, 70% of the jobs lost were the top 25 job losers in March (see chart below).  That is, 14mm of the 20mm losses.  We are not seeing a significant spread of the economic hit beyond the "social distance" victims.

- In April, Amusement parks shed 1 million jobs (Disney, etc) and shed only 8,000 in March.
- Local govt (education + workers) shed ~800k jobs and barely shed jobs in March.

So 2mm of the 6mm "other" jobs (non-top 25 in March) came from those two groups.

April jobs report reminds us bull markets bottom on bad news + Paul Tudor Jones says Bitcoin reminds him of 1970s gold...
Source: Fundstrat, BLS
You are trying to access FSI member-only content.
You need to have an active FSI Digital Assets, or FSI Pro subcription in order to read this article.
If you are already a member at FSInsight, please Sign In here. If you don’t have a subscription to FSInsight yet, you can sign up below.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 20%

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      billed anually
      Get access to all the macro research on FSInsight
      • Tom Lee's Live Market BLASTs
      • View from Tom Lee
      • Signal From Noise
      • Portfolio Strategy
      • Technical Analysis
      • Granny Shots – Stock Ideas
      • US Policy
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Digital Assets
      billed anually
      Get access to all the crypto research on FSInsight
      • Tom Lee's Live Crypto BLASTs
      • Tom's Take on Crypto
      • Crypto Weekly Newsletter
      • BitDigest Daily Newsletter
      • Crypto Technical Analysis
      • Benchmark Indices Review
      • Bitcoin Valuation & Misery Indexes
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      billed anually
      Get access to all the exclusive research on FSInsight
      • Looking at code?
      • I am hidden!
      • FSI Macro
      • +
      • FSI Digital Assets
      • Designed by
      • HANGAR115
      • -
      First Month Free!
Disclosures (show)

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)
FSInsight logo
150 East 52nd St, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10022

Subscribe to our Free Weekly Report

An insitutional-grade report delivered to your inbox every week.

© 2020 FSInsight. All rights reserved. Developed by HANGAR115.

Illustrations by Karl Wimer.