Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

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  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • SKIP THURSDAY
  • Friday

HEADS UP: I am taking a vacation this week, so there will not be “scheduled” market commentary July 12th to July 16th.  COVID-19 daily updates will be sent, without market color.  But if there is significant market turmoil, we will do INTRADAY commentary.  

COVID-related headlines

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/delta-variant-now-accounts-58-covid-19-cases/story?id=78834579

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Source: https://abc7.com/unvaccinated-covid19-los-angeles-county-hospitalizations/10887037/

 

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/delta-ceo-says-delta-covid-variant-has-had-no-impact-on-bookings.html

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/norwegian-cruise-line-sues-florida-surgeon-general-to-end-vaccine-passport-ban-.html

POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 28,517, up +10,299 (ex-FL) vs 7D ago… Positivity rate (7D avg) now over 5%…
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Current Trends — COVID-19 cases:
– Daily cases 28,517 vs 23,058 7D ago, up +5,459
– Daily cases ex-FL 28,517 vs 18,218 7D ago, up +10,299
– 7D positivity rate 5.1% vs 3.3% 7D ago
– Hospitalized patients 19,327, up +20% vs 7D ago
– Daily deaths 266, up +22% vs 7D ago
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*** Florida and Nebraska stopped publishing daily COVID stats updates on 6/4 and 6/30, respectively. We switched to use CDC surveillance data as the substitute. However, since CDC surveillance data is subject to a one-to-two day lag, we added a “US ex-FL&NE” in our daily cases and 7D delta sections in order to demonstrate a more comparable COVID development.

The latest COVID daily cases (ex-FL) came in at 28,517, up +10,299. As shown in the chart below, cases have been rapidly surging over the past 4 weeks, and it seems like the rate of this increase is accelerating. Currently, the 7D delta in daily cases is approximately 10,000, which means the case figure could exceed 50,000 in two weeks. Although there has not been any comprehensive study on the composition of the recent new infections, quite a few media sources have reported that the vast majority of recent new cases has been amongst unvaccinated individuals (i.e. LA County and Mississippi). Therefore, the effort to push more people to get vaccinated remains key. The good news is that according to the CDC, 88.9% of age 65+ population received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 79.3% are fully vaccinated. And we know the elder population is more vulnerable to the disease compared to younger individuals. Hence, even though cases are surging, the death toll might not follow the case trend.

Currently, TN, OK, AR, AL, MO, SC, and, NV are the states with the largest increase in daily cases compared to their recent lows (as shown in the “parabolic” tracker below), while all 7 states except NV have less than 50% of their populations vaccinated with at least one dose. This is consistent with what we mentioned above regarding the majority of new cases being amongst unvaccinated individuals, and with what we noted previously, vaccination penetration appears to have some causal relationship with the case trend. Therefore, the COVID developments (both the case and vaccination trends) in these states along with the other low vaccinated states (such as MS, LA, GA, ID, WY, ND, IN) are worth watching.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

7D delta in daily cases has been about 10,000, flat-lined over the past few days…
The 7D delta in daily cases now rose to approximately 10,000, but it has flat-lined over the past few days. Current speed of case increase implies that the case figure could exceed 50,000 in two weeks.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Low vaccinated states seem to have a larger increase in daily cases compared to their recent low…
Below, we added a new section called “Parabolic Case Surge Tracker” to monitor the possible parabolic surge in daily case figures. In the table, we included both the vaccine penetration and the recent case trend for 50 US states + DC. The table is sorted by the multiple of their current daily cases divided by their recent low in daily cases.

– The states with higher ranks are the states that have seen a more significant rise in daily cases
– We also calculated the number of days between now and the recent low date; a state with a high multiple but low number of days since its low means the state is facing a relatively rapid surge in daily cases
– The US as a whole, UK, and Israel are also shown at the top as a reference

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Current hospitalization and positivity rates are rising… Daily deaths also seem to be turning upwards now…
Below we show the aggregate number of patients hospitalized due to COVID, daily mortality associated with COVID, and the daily positivity rate for COVID. As you can see, hospitalization and daily deaths are relatively low compared to the prior waves. However, with the recent increase in daily cases, current hospitalization is clearly turning upwards, while daily deaths also appear to be turning. Regarding positivity rate, it recently exceeded 5%, which is higher than the positivity rate we observed during the “mini” wave this April and significantly higher than the recent low of <2%.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)
Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

POINT 2: VACCINE: vaccination pace is not improving amid the rising case figure… currently half million doses are administered daily…


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Current Trends — Vaccinations:
– avg 0.5 million this past week vs 0.6 million last week
– overall, 48.0% fully vaccinated, 55.3% 1-dose+ received
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Vaccination frontier update –> all states now near or above 80% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
Below we sorted the states by the combined penetration (vaccinations + infections). The assumption is that a state with higher combined penetration is likely to be closer to herd immunity, and therefore, less likely to see a parabolic surge in daily cases and deaths. Please note that this “combined penetration” metric can be over 100%, as infected people could also be vaccinated (actually recommended by CDC).

– Currently, all states are near or above 80% combined penetration
– RI, MA, SD, CT, NJ, IL, NY, DE, NM, UT, PA, ND, AZ, MN, CA, FL are now above 100% combined penetration (vaccines + infections). Again, this metric can be over 100%, as infected people could also be vaccinated. But 100% combined penetration does not mean that the entire population within each state is either infected or vaccinated.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Below is a diffusion chart that shows the % of US states (based on state population) that have reached the combined penetration >60%/70%/80%/90%. As you can see, all states have reached 60% and 70% combined vaccination + infection. 95.5% of US states (based on state population) have seen combined infection & vaccination >80% and 65.6% of US states have seen combined infection & vaccination >90%.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

There were a total of 563,632 doses administered reported on Thursday. Over the past 7 days, 526,174 doses were administered per day on average, down 12% from 7D ago. The vaccination speed has not improved even though cases are surging and vaccination seems to help against the variant. The overall vaccination trend has been sliding down over the past 3 months.

As the more transmissible Delta variant gradually becomes the dominant strain in the US, vaccinations could not only provide some degree of protection against the virus but are also likely to reduce virus transmission. As many media sources have reported, the majority of new infections in some regions (LA County, Mississippi) are amongst the unvaccinated people. Therefore, it would be a good sign if we start to see the number of vaccines administered rise. However, we understand that vaccine hesitancy concerns might not easily be reversed. More studies on the vaccine’s side-effects and its efficiency against the variant, as well as government efforts, are key. We will be closely watching the relevant data.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

97.7% of the US has seen 1-dose penetration >40%…
To better illustrate the actual footprint of the US vaccination effort, we have a time series showing the percent of the US with at least 45%/45%/50% of its residents fully vaccinated, displayed as the orange line on the chart. Currently, 83.9% of US states have seen 40% of their residents fully vaccinated. However, when looking at the percentage of the US with at least 45% of its residents fully vaccinated, this figure is 63.1%. And only 44.5% of US (by state population) have seen 50% of its residents fully vaccinated.

– While 97.7% of US states have seen vaccine penetration >40%, 89.1% of them have seen 1 dose penetration >45% and 66.2% of them have seen 1 dose penetration > 50%.
– 83.09% of the US has at least 40% of its residents fully vaccinated, However, only 63.1% of US has fully vaccinated >45% and 44.5% of US has fully vaccinated >50%.


Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

This is the state by state data below, showing information for individuals with one dose and two doses.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

The ratio of vaccinations/ daily confirmed cases has been falling significantly (red line is 7D moving avg). Both the surge in daily cases and decrease in daily vaccines administered contributed to this.

– the 7D moving average is about ~30 for the past few days
– this means 30 vaccines dosed for every 1 confirmed case

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

In total, 333 million vaccine doses have been administered across the country. Specifically, 184 million Americans (55% of US population) have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine. And 159 million Americans (48% of US population) are fully vaccinated.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

POINT 3: Tracking restrictions lifting and subsequent effects in individual states

Point #3 focuses primarily on tracking the lifting of restrictions, as states have eased the majority of mandates. Keep in mind, easing/lifting restrictions are contingent upon state of emergency ordinances being renewed.

– States in groups 1 and 2 represent states that let their emergency ordinances expire, or that never had one in the first place
– Note: IL and HI are not listed. This is because restrictions lifting is determined at the county / island level, and no statewide policy will be established to lift restrictions until a full reopening

So there is a spectrum of approaches. Our team is listing 3 tiers of states and these are shown below.

– states that eased all restrictions in 2020: AK, OK, MO, FL, TN
– states that have eased all restrictions in 2021 to now: ND, SD, NE, ID, IA, MT, MS, AZ, SC, WY, TX, GA, AR, KS, WI, IN, AL, UT, NH, LA, NJ, KY, MN, MA, VT, OH, WV, ME, MI, NY, OR, PA, MD, DE
– states that are still easing restrictions in 2021: WA, NC, CA, NM, CO, NV, CT, VA, RI, DC

GROUP 1: States that lifted restrictions in 2020…
The daily case trends in these states are impressive and it is difficult to say that lifting restrictions has actually caused a new wave of cases because the case trends in these states look like other states.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

GROUP 2: States that have lifted restrictions in 2021 to now…
Similar to the list of states above, the daily case trends in these states are impressive and it seems that lifting restrictions hasn’t caused an increase in cases.

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

GROUP 3: States that are still easing restrictions in 2021…
These states have begun to lift restrictions, but have yet to ease all restrictions. The date of each state’s most recent restrictions lifting is indicated on each chart. The case trends in these states have been mostly positive.

– Easing restrictions appears to have contributed to an increase in cases in several of these states, most drastically in OR, ME, WA, and MN

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

Daily cases ex-FL at 28,517 (+10,299 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 563,632 (-127,426 vs. 7D ago)

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